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Inflation regimes and inflation expectations

  • Joseph E. Gagnon

This paper examines the formation of expectations about future inflation over long horizons. A key issue that agents must confront is the possibility that the economic policy framework— especially the monetary policy regime—could change at some future date. Agents are likely to base inferences about possible future regimes on experience over many years and decades past. This aspect of expectations formation may explain why inflation premiums in long-term bond yields are higher in countries with a long history of high inflation.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 229-243

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2008:i:may:p:229-243:n:v.90no.3,pt.2
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  1. Hahn, Frank, 1990. "On Inflation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 15-25, Winter.
  2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1996. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1183-1209.
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  4. John Simon, 1996. "A Markov-switching Model of Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9611, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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  8. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
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  10. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
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  12. Chapman, David A. & Ogaki, Masao, 1993. "Cotrending and the stationarity of the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(2-3), pages 133-138.
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  14. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  15. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  16. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie, 1987. "On the normality of probability distributions of inflation and GNP forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 269-279.
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