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Detecting multiple breaks in long memory the case of U.S. inflation

  • Uwe Hassler


  • Barbara Meller


Multiple structural change tests by Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66:47–78, 1998 ) are applied to the regression by Demetrescu et al. (Econ Theory 24:176–215, 2008 ) in order to detect breaks in the order of fractional integration. With this instrument we tackle time-varying inflation persistence as an important issue for monetary policy. We determine not only the location and significance of breaks in persistence, but also the number of breaks. Only one significant break in U.S. inflation persistence (measured by the long-memory parameter) is found to have taken place in 1973, while a second break in 1980 is not significant. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 46 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 653-680

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:2:p:653-680
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  1. Baillie, Richard T. & Kapetanios, George, 2008. "Nonlinear models for strongly dependent processes with financial applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 60-71, November.
  2. Robinson, P.M., 2005. "The distance between rival nonstationary fractional processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 283-300, October.
  3. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2011. "Detecting changes from short to long memory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 847-870, November.
  4. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  5. Hassler, Uwe & Breitung, J rg, 2006. "A Residual-Based Lm-Type Test Against Fractional Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(06), pages 1091-1111, December.
  6. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
  7. Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January.
  8. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
  9. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  10. I.N. Lobato & N.E. Savin, 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Econometrics 9605004, EconWPA, revised 26 Sep 1996.
  11. Hassler, Uwe & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rubia, Antonio, 2009. "Testing For General Fractional Integration In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1793-1828, December.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Joerg Breitung and Uwe Hassler, 2001. "Inference on the Cointegration Rank in Fractionally Integrated Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 233, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
  15. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, 09.
  16. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
  17. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  18. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Hassler, Uwe & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2010. "Impulse Responses Of Fractionally Integrated Processes With Long Memory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(06), pages 1855-1861, December.
  20. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
  21. Baillie, Richard T. & Kapetanios, George, 2007. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long-Memory Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 447-461, October.
  22. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
  23. Kew, Hsein & Harris, David, 2009. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Testing For A Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1734-1753, December.
  24. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  25. Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
  26. Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 263-285, 05.
  27. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Vladimir Kuzin, 2011. "Pitfalls of post-model-selection testing: experimental quantification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 359-372, April.
  28. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
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