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Persistence in the Banking Industry: Fractional integration and breaks in memory

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  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues
  • Uwe Hassler

Abstract

Certain ”spurious long memory” processes mimic the behavior of fractional integration in that the variance of their sample mean behaves like that of a fractionally integrated process of some order D. We show, however, experimentally that a fractional integration test may discriminate between spurious long memory of order D and integration of order D. Further, we suggest a test for the null hypothesis that the order of integration does not change from one subperiod to another. It simply builds on the difference of the estimates from the respective subsamples that are split exogenously. Upon appropriate normalization a limiting standard normal distribution arises. With these methods we tackle the question whether international and sectoral bank equity index returns are fractionally integrated and whether the memory parameters have changed. The daily data are split into three regimes: one pre-crises subsample, a second including the collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank, and a third covering the Euro area sovereign debt crisis. In particular, we provide evidence that both turmoils had differing international effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Uwe Hassler, 2014. "Persistence in the Banking Industry: Fractional integration and breaks in memory," Working Papers w201406, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201406
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jae H. & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2015. "Significance testing in empirical finance: A critical review and assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "A modified test against spurious long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 34-38.
    3. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Osuolale, Kazeem & Ogbonna, Ephraim A, 2019. "Influence of US Presidential Terms on S&P500 Index Using a Time Series Analysis Approach," MPRA Paper 93941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Todea, Alexandru, 2016. "Cross-correlations between volatility, volatility persistence and stock market integration: the case of emergent stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 208-215.
    6. Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Robert Mudida & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Kazeem A. Osuolale & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2021. "Mapping US presidential terms with S&P500 index: Time series analysis approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1938-1954, April.
    7. Jorge M. L. Andraz & Raúl F. C. Guerreiro & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2018. "Persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1801-1825, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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