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When long memory meets the Kalman filter: A comparative study

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  • Grassi, Stefano
  • Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

Abstract

The finite sample properties of the state space methods applied to long memory time series are analyzed through Monte Carlo simulations. The state space setup allows to introduce a novel modeling approach in the long memory framework, which directly tackles measurement errors and random level shifts. Missing values and several alternative sources of misspecification are also considered. It emerges that the state space methodology provides a valuable alternative for the estimation of the long memory models, under different data generating processes, which are common in financial and economic series. Two empirical applications highlight the practical usefulness of the proposed state space methods.

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  • Grassi, Stefano & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2014. "When long memory meets the Kalman filter: A comparative study," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 301-319.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:76:y:2014:i:c:p:301-319
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2012.10.018
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    1. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    2. Davide Delle Monache & Stefano Grassi & Paolo Santucci, 2015. "Testing for Level Shifts in Fractionally Integrated Processes: a State Space Approach," Studies in Economics 1511, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "A modified test against spurious long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 34-38.
    5. Tobias Hartl & Roland Jucknewitz, 2022. "Approximate state space modelling of unobserved fractional components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 75-98, January.
    6. Dissanayake, G.S. & Peiris, M.S. & Proietti, T., 2016. "State space modeling of Gegenbauer processes with long memory," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 115-130.
    7. Fredrik N. G. Andersson & Yushu Li, 2020. "Are Central Bankers Inflation Nutters? An MCMC Estimator of the Long-Memory Parameter in a State Space Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 529-549, February.
    8. Rasmus T. Varneskov & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Combining long memory and level shifts in modelling and forecasting the volatility of asset returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 371-393, March.
    9. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    10. Davide Delle Monache & Stefano Grassi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2017. "Does the ARFIMA really shift?," CREATES Research Papers 2017-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Li, Yushu, 2014. "Are Central Bankers Inflation Nutters? - A Bayesian MCMC Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter in a State Space Model," Discussion Papers 2014/38, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    12. Nima Nonejad, 2024. "Point forecasts of the price of crude oil: an attempt to “beat” the end-of-month random-walk benchmark," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1497-1539, October.
    13. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Li, Yushu, 2013. "How Flexible are the Inflation Targets? A Bayesian MCMC Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter in a State Space Model," Working Papers 2013:38, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARFIMA models; State space; Missing observations; Measurement error; Level shifts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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