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Detecting multiple breaks in long memory: The case of US inflation

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  • Hassler, Uwe
  • Meller, Barbara

Abstract

Multiple structural change tests by Bei and Perron (1998) are applied to the regression by Demetrescu, Kuzin and Hassler (2008) in order to detect breaks in the order of fractional integration. With this instrument we tackle time-varying inflation persistence as an important issue for monetary policy. We determine not only the location and significance of breaks in persistence, but also the number of breaks. Only one significant break in U.S. inflation persistence (measured by the long-memory parameter) is found to have taken place in 1973, while a second break in 1980 is not significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassler, Uwe & Meller, Barbara, 2011. "Detecting multiple breaks in long memory: The case of US inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201126
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional integration; break in persistence; unknown break point; inflation dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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