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Testing for Persistence Change in Fractionally Integrated Models: An Application to World Inflation Rates

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  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues
  • Luis F. Martins

Abstract

In this paper we propose an approach to detect persistence changes in fractionally integrated models based on recursive forward and backward estimation of the Breitung and Hassler (2002) test. This procedure generalises to fractionally integrated processes the approaches of Leybourne, Kim, Smith and Newbold (2003) and Leybourne and Taylor (2003),which are ADF and seasonal unit root type tests, respectively, for the conventional intenger value context. Asymptotic results are derived and the performance of the new procedures evaluated in a Monte Carlo exercise. The ?nite sample size and power performance of the procedures are very encouraging and compare very favourably to available tests, such as those recently proposed by Hassler and Sheithauer (2009) and Sibbertsen and Kruse (2007).We also apply the test statistics introduced to several world inflation rates and and evidence of change in persistence in most series.

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  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Luis F. Martins, 2010. "Testing for Persistence Change in Fractionally Integrated Models: An Application to World Inflation Rates," Working Papers w201030, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201030
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    5. Wingert, Simon & Mboya, Mwasi Paza & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "Distinguishing between breaks in the mean and breaks in persistence under long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Osuolale, Kazeem & Ogbonna, Ephraim A, 2019. "Influence of US Presidential Terms on S&P500 Index Using a Time Series Analysis Approach," MPRA Paper 93941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Daiqing Xi & Tianxiao Pang, 2021. "Estimating multiple breaks in mean sequentially with fractionally integrated errors," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 451-494, February.
    9. Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo, 2022. "The persistence of financial volatility after COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    10. Gabriel Zsurkis & JoÃo Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "A Re‐Examination of Inflation Persistence Dynamics in OECD Countries: A New Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 935-959, August.
    11. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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    14. Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014. "Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
    15. Bolat, Süleyman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kyophilavong, Phouphet, 2017. "Testing the inflation rates in MENA countries: Evidence from quantile regression approach and seasonal unit root test," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1089-1095.
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    17. Chen, Zhanshou & Xing, Yuhong & Li, Fuxiao, 2016. "Sieve bootstrap monitoring for change from short to long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 53-56.
    18. Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled & Yousaf, Imran & Bhandari, Avishek, 2023. "Long memory in the high frequency cryptocurrency markets using fractal connectivity analysis: The impact of COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Massimiliano Caporin & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Time-varying persistence in US inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 423-439, September.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Is inflation persistence different in reality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 55-58.
    21. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2022. "Tests for segmented cointegration: an application to US governments budgets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 567-600, August.
    22. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    23. Jorge M. L. Andraz & Raúl F. C. Guerreiro & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2018. "Persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1801-1825, June.
    24. Theoplasti Kolaiti & Mwasi Mboya & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2020. "Volatility Transmission across Financial Markets: A Semiparametric Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, July.
    25. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.

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