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Tests for cointegration with structural breaks based on subsamples

  • Davidson, James
  • Monticini, Andrea

Tests for cointegration with allowance for structural breaks using the extrema of residual-based tests over subsamples of the data are considered. One motivation for the approach is to formalize the practice of data snooping by practitioners, who may examine subsamples after failing to find a predicted cointegrating relationship. Valid critical values for such multiple testing situations may be useful. The methods also have the advantage of not imposing a form for the alternative hypothesis-in particular slope vs. intercept shifts and single versus multiple breaks-and being comparatively easy to compute. A range of alternative subsampling procedures, including sample splits, incremental and rolling samples are tabulated and compared experimentally. Shiller's annual stock prices and dividends series provide an illustration.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 54 (2010)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 2498-2511

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:11:p:2498-2511
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  1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  2. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
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  4. de Jong, Robert M. & Davidson, James, 2000. "The Functional Central Limit Theorem And Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals I," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 621-642, October.
  5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  6. Davidson, James, 2002. "A model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 187-212, October.
  7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  9. Kim, Jae-Young, 2003. "Inference On Segmented Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 620-639, August.
  10. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 489-500, December.
  12. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  13. Zhongjun Qu, 2007. "Searching for cointegration in a dynamic system," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 580-604, November.
  14. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  15. Ignacio N. Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2006. "Optimal Fractional Dickey-Fuller tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 492-510, November.
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  17. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  18. Davidson, James, 2006. "Alternative bootstrap procedures for testing cointegration in fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 741-777, August.
  19. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
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