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Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis

  • Robinson Kruse

    ()

    (Leibniz University Hannover and CREATES)

  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària

    ()

    (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, CIDE)

  • Antonio E. Noriega

    ()

    (Banco de México)

Declining inflation persistence has been documented in numerous studies. When such series are analyzed in a regression framework in conjunction with other persistent time series, spurious regressions are likely to occur. We propose to use the coefficient of determination R2 as a test statistic to distinguish between spurious and genuine regressions in situations where time series possibly (but not necessarily) exhibit changes in persistence. To this end, we establish some limit theory for the R2 statistic and conduct a Monte Carlo study where we investigate its finite-sample properties. Finally, we apply the test to the Fisher equation for the U.S. and Mexico. Contrary to a rejection using cointegration techniques, the R2-based test offers strong evidence favourable to the Fisher hypothesis.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/13/rp13_11.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2013-11.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2013-11
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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  11. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
  12. Mark J. Jensen, 2006. "The long-run Fisher effect: can it be tested?," Working Paper 2006-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 2000. "A note on nonstationarity, structural breaks, and the Fisher effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 695-707, May.
  14. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2008. "Spurious Regression," MPRA Paper 59008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
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  17. Kang Kyu Ho & Kim Chang-Jin & Morley James, 2009. "Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, September.
  18. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
  19. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
  20. Antonio E. Noriega & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
  21. Mohitosh Kejriwal, 2009. "The Nature of Persistence in Euro Area Inflation: A Reconsideration," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1218, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
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  25. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Vanessa Smith & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Tests for a change in persistence against the null of difference-stationarity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 291-311, December.
  26. Halunga, Andreea G. & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2009. "Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 30-32, January.
  27. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares-Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, 05.
  28. Noriega, Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," MPRA Paper 58775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Quantile cointegration analysis of the Fisher hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 186-198.
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