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The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?

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  • Soon, Siew-Voon
  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
  • Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima

Abstract

This paper investigates the stationarity behavior of the ex-post real interest rates (RIRs) for 12 Asian countries. Formal tests conducted indicate that high persistence is an intrinsic characteristic in the majority of the RIRs. We consider local-persistent model to assess the degree of persistence in these series. The findings from this devise reveal that RIRs are persistent, but are characterized by a mean-reverting process. The consistency of the persistence comparable amongst the series is confirmed after accounting for the volatility of the consumption growth. Applying a test proposed by Leybourne et al. (2007a) that allows for long memory dynamics, we reconfirm the characteristic of the series. Building on previous studies, this paper provides favorable support for the long-run Fisher hypothesis and help to solve an intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle across the emerging and advanced countries. Finally, the results for the G-7 countries are presented for comparison.

Suggested Citation

  • Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:36-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2017.08.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rates; Consumption growth; Half-life; Asian countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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