IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i4p1959-1966.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mean-reversion in international real interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Jae H.
  • Ji, Philip Inyeob

Abstract

This paper examines the mean-reversion property of real interest rates. Many past studies have reported puzzling outcomes of the mean-aversion of real interest rates for a number of countries. In the article, we employ panel unit root tests and carry out half-life estimation based on the bias-corrected bootstrap. These findings of the paper provide strong evidence that, in both major Western and East Asian capital markets (including several emerging ones), real interest rates are mean-reverting. In addition, we find evidence that the degree of mean-reversion of the real interest rates is positively correlated with that of output growth, which is consistent with the implications of standard intertemporal behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jae H. & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2011. "Mean-reversion in international real interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1959-1966, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:1959-1966
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999311000939
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    4. Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
    5. Claude Lopez & Javier Reyes, 2009. "Stationary properties of the real interest rate and the per-capita consumption growth rate: empirical evidence for theoretical arguments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1643-1651.
    6. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2005. "Do Panels Help Solve the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 410-415, October.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    8. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    9. Christian Murray & David Papell, 2005. "The purchasing power parity puzzle is worse than you think," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 783-790, October.
    10. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Confidence Intervals for Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 432-442, October.
    11. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    12. Timothy K. Chue & In Choi, 2007. "Subsampling hypothesis tests for nonstationary panels with applications to exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 233-264.
    13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    15. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
    16. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29.
    18. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    19. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    20. Jeremy J. Siegel & Richard H. Thaler, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter.
    21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    22. Lai, Kon S., 2004. "On structural shifts and stationarity of the ex ante real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-228.
    23. Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param & Hyndman, Rob J., 2007. "Half-life estimation based on the bias-corrected bootstrap: A highest density region approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3418-3432, April.
    24. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    25. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2004. "Asymptotic confidence intervals for impulse responses of near-integrated processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 505-527, December.
    26. David E. Rapach & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "The persistence in international real interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 339-346.
    27. Warwick J. McKibbin & Zhi Wang & William Coyle, 2001. "The Asian Financial Crisis and Global Adjustments: Implications for US Agriculture," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 471-490, December.
    28. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    29. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
    30. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philip Inyeob Ji & Sangbae Kim, 2013. "Mean-reversion in closed-end fund discount: evidence from half-life," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(32), pages 4503-4515, November.
    2. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    3. Khalid Kisswani & Salah Nusair, 2014. "Nonlinear convergence in Asian interest and inflation rates: evidence from Asian countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 155-186, August.
    4. Chih-Kai Chang & Tsangyao Chang, 2012. "Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of real interest rates: SPSM using the Panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1299-1304, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    2. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    3. Jayasuriya, Sisira & Kim, Jae H. & Kumar, Parmod, 2007. "International and Internal Market Integration in Indian agriculture: A study of the Indian Rice Market," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7935, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param & Hyndman, Rob J., 2007. "Half-life estimation based on the bias-corrected bootstrap: A highest density region approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3418-3432, April.
    6. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "A nonparametric study of real exchange rate persistence over a century," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 406-418.
    7. McMillan, David G., 2013. "Consumption and stock prices: Evidence from a small international panel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-88.
    8. Philip Inyeob Ji & Sangbae Kim, 2013. "Mean-reversion in closed-end fund discount: evidence from half-life," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(32), pages 4503-4515, November.
    9. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Monique Reid & Christian Tipoy & Mulatu Zerihun, 2014. "Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: evidence and implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 41-62, February.
    10. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    12. Tolga Omay & Ayşegül Çorakcı & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2017. "Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 283-307, February.
    13. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    14. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2013. "Median-unbiased estimation in DF-GLS regressions and the PPP puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 455-464, February.
    15. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, Rene, 1996. "Consumption and equilibrium asset pricing: An empirical assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 239-265, September.
    16. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    17. Ravi Kashyap, 2016. "Solving the Equity Risk Premium Puzzle and Inching Towards a Theory of Everything," Papers 1604.04872, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    18. YiLi Chien & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "The Market Price of Aggregate Risk and the Wealth Distribution," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1596-1650, April.
    19. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    20. Sofiane Sekioua & Menelaos Karanasos, 2006. "The real exchange rate and the Purchasing Power Parity puzzle: further evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 199-211.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:1959-1966. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.