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Parity reversion in real interest rate in the Asian countries: Further evidence based on local-persistent model

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  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
  • Soon, Siew-Voon
  • Hamzah, Nor Aishah

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of real interest parity (RIP) for 10 Asian economies over the period 1977–2012 (quarterly frequency). The evidence based on two-break unit root tests reveals that majority of the real interest rate differentials (RIDs) with respect to Germany and the US are stationary, but this appears not to be the case for the Japan-based RIDs. Contrary to these results, the point estimates and the confidence intervals (CIs) of half-lives based on the Phillips et al.'s (2001) local-persistent model provide a clear-cut conclusion on RIP: Most of the RIDs take less than a year to adjust back to their respective equilibrium values, with notably tighter CIs than what has been suggested by earlier literature.

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  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Hamzah, Nor Aishah, 2013. "Parity reversion in real interest rate in the Asian countries: Further evidence based on local-persistent model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 634-642.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:634-642
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.024
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    Cited by:

    1. Kai-Yin Woo & Shu-Kam Lee & Cho-Yiu Joe Ng, 2018. "An Investigation Into The Dynamic Relationship Between Cpi And Ppi: Evidence From The Uk, France And Germany," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1081-1100, July.
    2. Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Wohar, 2015. "Parity reversion in the Asian real exchange rates: new evidence from the local-persistent model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(59), pages 6395-6408, December.
    3. Abdullah Gulcu & Dilem Yildirim, 2018. "Smooth Breaks And Nonlinear Mean Reversion In Real Interest Parity: Evidence From East Asian Countries," ERC Working Papers 1804, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Feb 2018.
    4. Zixiong Xie & Shyh-Wei Chen & An-Chi Wu, 2023. "Real interest rate parity in the Pacific Rim countries: new empirical evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1471-1515, March.
    5. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    6. Jeong, Minsoo, 2022. "Modelling persistent stationary processes in continuous time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Luke Lin & Chun I. Lee, 2016. "Central Bank Intervention, Exchange Rate Regime and the Purchasing Power Parity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1256-1274, August.
    8. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2015. "Does real interest rate parity really hold? New evidence from G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 299-306.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rate parity; Structural breaks; Half-lives; Local-persistent model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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