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A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

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  • George Bagdatoglou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.
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  • George Bagdatoglou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 718-727, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:19:y:2011:i:4:p:718-727
    DOI: j.1467-9396.2011.00977.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Hamzah, Nor Aishah, 2013. "Parity reversion in real interest rate in the Asian countries: Further evidence based on local-persistent model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 634-642.
    3. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2018. "Asymmetries, outliers and structural stability in the US gasoline market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 250-260.
    4. Abdullah Gulcu & Dilem Yildirim, 2018. "Smooth Breaks And Nonlinear Mean Reversion In Real Interest Parity: Evidence From East Asian Countries," ERC Working Papers 1804, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Feb 2018.
    5. Ching-Chuan Tsong & Cheng-Feng Lee, 2013. "Further Evidence On Real Interest Rate Equalization: Panel Information, Non-Linearities And Structural Changes," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 85-105, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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