Does "Aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle?
Recently, Imbs et. al. (2002) have claimed that much of the purchasing power parity puzzle can be explained by aggregation bias'. This paper re-examines aggregation bias. First, it clarifies the meaning of aggregation bias and its applicability to the PPP puzzle. Second, the size of the bias' is shown to be much smaller than the simulations in Imbs et. al. (2002) suggest, if we rule out explosive roots in the simulations. Third, we show that the presence of non-persistent measurement error especially in the Imbs et. al. (2002) data can make price series appear less persistent than they really are. Finally, it is now standard to recognize that small-sample bias plagues estimates of speeds of convergence of PPP. After correcting small sample bias by methods proposed by Kilian (1998) and by So and Shin (1999), the half-life estimates indicate that heterogeneity and aggregation bias do not help to solve the PPP puzzle.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Publication status:||published as Chen, Shiu-Sheng and Charles Engel. "Does' Aggregation Bias' Explain The PPP Puzzle?," Pacific Economic Review, 2005, v10(1,Feb), 49-72.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
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- Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005.
"PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
- Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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