Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth. They follow Marcellino, Stock, and Watson (2003) and use disaggregate information to predict aggregate GDP growth. An array of multivariate forecasting models are considered for five Canadian regions, and single-equation models are considered for direct forecasting of Canadian GDP. The authors focus on forecasts at 1-, 2-, 4-, and 8-quarter horizons, which best represent the monetary policy transmission framework of long and variable lags. Region-specific forecasts are aggregated to the country level and tested against aggregate country-level forecasts. The empirical results show that Canadian GDP growth forecasts can be improved by indirectly forecasting the GDP growth of the Canadian economic regions using a multivariate approach, namely a vector autoregression and moving average with exogenous regressors (VARMAX) model.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada|
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
- Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, "undated".
"Symetrie des chocs touchant les regions canadiennes et choix d'un regime de change,"
Staff Working Papers
94-9, Bank of Canada.
- Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, 1995. "Symetrie des chocs touchant les regions canadiennes et choix d'un regime de change," Macroeconomics 9502001, EconWPA.
- Clive W. J. Granger, 1988. "Aggregation of time series variables-a survey," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe, 2003. "Regional Perspectives on Dollarization in Canada," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 541-570.
- Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe, 2003. "Regional perspectives on dollarization in Canada," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10433, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 6636, March.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, "undated". "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Monetary and exchange rate arrangements for NAFTA," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 125-165, February.
- Barry J. Eichengreen & Tamim Bayoumi, 1993. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for Nafta," IMF Working Papers 93/20, International Monetary Fund.
- Marc Hallin & Zudi Lu & Lanh T. Tran, 2004. "Local linear spatial regression," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2131, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2000. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001. "Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2002. "Aggregation of Space-Time Processes," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 582, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.