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Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni

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  • Charles St-Arnaud

Abstract

The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom. The estimation method, which follows Rennison (2003) and Gosselin and Lalonde (2002), shows that combining the use of a Hodrick-Prescott filter and a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) is optimal to estimating potential output. Using this method, the author estimates two components of U.K. potential output: the full-employment labour input and the trend rate of labour-productivity growth. This type of decomposition is similar to the one used by HM Treasury (2002) and is particularly useful for identifying the source of fluctuations in potential output. The author's results show that growth in potential output was primarily driven by growth in labour productivity over the 1971–2003 period, whereas its volatility is accounted for by the labour-input component. In addition, the author attempts to explain movements in inflation using this new methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Staff Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    16. René Lalonde & Jennifer Page & Pierre St-Amant, 1998. "Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne," Staff Working Papers 98-21, Bank of Canada.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
    2. Verne, Jean-François, 2011. "Les principales caractéristiques du cycle économique et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(2), pages 117-136, juin.
    3. Charbel Macdissi & Jean-François Verne, 2009. "Un essai d'estimation de la production potentielle au Liban," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 143-159.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; Econometric and statistical methods; Business fluctuations and cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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