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Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni

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  • Charles St-Arnaud

Abstract

The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom. The estimation method, which follows Rennison (2003) and Gosselin and Lalonde (2002), shows that combining the use of a Hodrick-Prescott filter and a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) is optimal to estimating potential output. Using this method, the author estimates two components of U.K. potential output: the full-employment labour input and the trend rate of labour-productivity growth. This type of decomposition is similar to the one used by HM Treasury (2002) and is particularly useful for identifying the source of fluctuations in potential output. The author's results show that growth in potential output was primarily driven by growth in labour productivity over the 1971–2003 period, whereas its volatility is accounted for by the labour-input component. In addition, the author attempts to explain movements in inflation using this new methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Staff Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-46
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2004-46
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    13. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2002. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel américain," Staff Working Papers 02-36, Bank of Canada.
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    21. repec:nsr:niesrd:76 is not listed on IDEAS
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    24. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, 1999. "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-François Verne, 2011. "Les principales caractéristiques du cycle économique et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(2), pages 117-136.
    2. Charbel Macdissi & Jean-François Verne, 2009. "Un essai d'estimation de la production potentielle au Liban," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 143-159.
    3. lahlou, kamal, 2009. "Essai d’estimation de la fonction de réaction de Bank Al-Maghrib [Estimation of Bank Al-Maghrib Reaction Function]," MPRA Paper 98018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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