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Temporary Cycles or Volatile Trends? Economic Fluctuations in 21 OECD Economies

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  • Sterne, Gabriel
  • Bayoumi, Tamim

Abstract

Structural vector autoregressions are used to distinguish between transitory (AD) disturbances to output and permanent (AS) disturbances. The results indicate that the two disturbances are of roughly equal importance in explaining fluctuations in growth and inflation across a wide range of OECD countries. A method of distinguishing the effects of each type of disturbance on output and prices is then outlined. This makes it possible to measure 'supply potential' for each economy. The authors find evidence of a steady decline in the rate of increase of supply potential over time, a view consistent with the 'catch up' theory of postwar economic growth. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Sterne, Gabriel & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1995. "Temporary Cycles or Volatile Trends? Economic Fluctuations in 21 OECD Economies," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(1), pages 23-51, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:63:y:1995:i:1:p:23-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Mervyn A. King & Mark Robson, 1989. "Endogenous Growth and the role of History," NBER Working Papers 3151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Lecture Notes on Economic Growth(II): Five Prototype Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, January.
    9. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    10. Sala-I-Martin, X., 1990. "Lecture Notes On Economic Growth: Five Prototype Models Of Endogenous Growth," Papers 622, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Staff Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jan Gottschalk & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2003. "Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? An Investigation into the Case of Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 55-81, March.
    3. Louis, Rosmy & Osman, Mohammad & Balli, FAruk, 2007. "On The Road to Monetary Union – Do Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Economies React in the same way to United States' Monetary Policy Shocks?," MPRA Paper 11610, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
    4. Dopke, Jorg, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
    5. ODIA NDONGO, Yves Francis, 2007. "Les sources des fluctuations marcoéconomiques au Cameroun," MPRA Paper 1308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Funke, Michael, 1997. "Supply potential and output gaps in West German manufacturing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 211-222, June.
    7. Alejandro D. Jacobo, 2002. "Taking the business cycle´s pulse to some Latin American economies: Is there a rhythmical beat?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 17(2), pages 219-245.
    8. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
    9. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, 1999. "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England.
    10. Ewa Wrobel & Malgorzata Pawlowska, 2002. "Monetary transmission in Poland: some evidence on interest rate and credit channels," NBP Working Papers 24, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    11. jose ramos pires manso, 2004. "Economical Versus Political Cycles In An Iberian Manufacturing Sector," Industrial Organization 0404003, EconWPA.

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