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La Utilización de la Capacidad Instalada de la Industria en Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

En este documento se utiliza la metodología VAR estructural para descomponer la producción industrial colombiana en sus componentes permanente, o capacidad de la industria y transitorio o utilización de la capacidad instalada. Esta última es una variable indicadora de la coyuntura económica que permita una visión muy acertada del ciclo económico.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 153.

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  1. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Kennedy, James E., 1998. "An Analysis of Time-Series Estimates of Capacity Utilization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 169-187, January.
  4. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada.
  5. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Danny Quah, 1991. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," FMG Discussion Papers dp126, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Working Papers 378, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  9. Elkin Castaño V. & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 1998. "Métodos De Combinación De Pronósticos:Una Aplicación A La Inflación Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003212, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Luis Fernando Melo & Alvaro Riascos, . "El Producto Potencial utilizando el Filtro de Hodrick- Prescott con Parámetro de Suavización Variable y Ajustado por Inflación: Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 083, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1999. "Un Examen Empirico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003676, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
  15. Lawrence R. Klein, 1958. "The Measurement of Capacity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 49, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1992. "Monetary policy with uncertain estimates of potential output," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 2-15.
  17. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
  19. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, EconWPA.
  20. Lalonde, René & Page, Jennifer & St-Amant, Pierre, 1998. "Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne," Staff Working Papers 98-21, Bank of Canada.
  21. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-78, May.
  22. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  23. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  24. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Assessing the Federal Reserve's Measures of Capacity and Utilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 181-242.
  25. Luis Fernando Melo & Franz A.Hamann, . "Inflación Básica.Una Estimación Basada en Modelos VAR Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 093, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  26. Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
  27. Séverine Mayo & Marie Reynaud, 1995. "Industrie manufacturière : de l'investissement aux capacités de production," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 281(1), pages 69-81.
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