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La Utilización de la Capacidad Instalada de la Industria en Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

Para el gobierno, las autoridades en los bancos centrales y los investigadores que se preocupan por comprender la lógica de las fluctuaciones económicas es la brecha del producto, definida como la desviación en proporción del producto efectivo con relación al potencial en ausencia de presiones inflacionarias, la medida individual más importante y que provee más información acerca de la fase del ciclo en donde se encuentra la economía. Razón por la cual ésta es utilizada ampliamente como indicador de coyuntura o como medida de los desequilibrios en los mercados de bienes en modelos macroeconómicos uniecuacionales o completos. En estos últimos, la brecha del producto es una variable clave en el análisis de la evolución de los precios y los salarios. De otro lado, como lo mostró Svensson (1997), un adecuado seguimiento de la brecha del producto es de especial importancia para los países que optan por una meta de inflación como el objetivo esencial de su política. En este caso, la meta de inflación se constituye en un elemento determinante de la evolución de las condiciones monetarias. Una mala proyección de la inflación puede llevar a un mal ajuste de esas últimas y al incumplimiento repetido de las metas de inflación, con el consecuente deterioro en la credibilidad de las autoridades. Riesgos que pueden reducirse, en buena medida, con un acertado seguimiento de la brecha del producto. Muy a pesar de su atractivo, la brecha del producto no es una variable que pueda obtenerse fácilmente. Diversas hipótesis pueden formularse en el marco de las técnicas econométricas para estimar dicha variable. Una hipótesis comúnmente utilizada plantea que la brecha del producto es la componente transitoria no observada de la producción real o de una parte de esta última. Si la producción real estuviese conformada por una componente transitoria y una tendencia determinística simple, no sería muy difícil medir la brecha de la producción como el componente transitorio de ésta.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 153.

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