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Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia

  • Martha Misas A

    ()

  • Enrique López E

La evaluación de los desequilibrios en los mercados de bienes y trabajo permite un diagnóstico preciso de la fase en que se encuentra una economía en el ciclo económico. Es éste artículo se utiliza la metodología de vectores autorregresivos estructurales (SVAR) aplicada a un único sistema de información conformado por las variables de producto real, precios al consumidor, tasa de desempleo y utilización de la capacidad instalada para construir la brecha del producto y de desempleo. Para el cálculo de éstos dos indicadores fue necesario resolver un complejo problema de indentificación, de forma tal que se pudieran definir los shock estructurales que han afectado en el pasado la economía colombiana. La teoría económica, específicamente un modelo IS-LM microfundamentado, permite estipular 10 restricciones de largo plazo y solucionar el problema.

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File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/espe_040-1.pdf
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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): 40 (December)
Pages: 5-45

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:002292
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  1. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," COYUNTURA SOCIAL 012955, FEDESARROLLO.
  3. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2000. "La Utilización De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 18(38), pages 5-44, December.
  4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  5. Luis Fernando Melo V. & AlvaroRiascos, 1997. "El Producto Potencial Utilizando El Filtro De Hodrick-Prescott Con Parametro De Suavización Variable Y Ajustado Por Inflacion: Una Aplicación Para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002539, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, 1999. "Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003309, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Willie Belton & Richard Cebula, 2000. "Capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates: are they complements or substitutes in warning about future inflation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(14), pages 1853-1864.
  9. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, EconWPA.
  10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  11. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, September.
  12. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  14. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, December.
  15. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
  16. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-77, November.
  17. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  19. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
  20. Luis Fernando Melo & Franz A.Hamann, . "Inflación Básica.Una Estimación Basada en Modelos VAR Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 093, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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