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La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR
[Output Gap and Potential GDP in Venezuela: A SVAR Estimation]

Author

Listed:
  • Acevedo Rueda, Rafael Alexis
  • Mora Mora, José U.
  • Harmath Fernández, Pedro Alexander

Abstract

This paper estimates the GDP gap in Venezuela by means of the structural VAR methodology and the Blanchard and Quah decomposition for the period 1999:1-2010:4. We use quarterly data for the inflation rate, real GDP, unemployment rate, and oil prices. We identify fiscal and monetary innovations on the demand side and technological and labor market disturbances on the supply side. Empirical results are consistent with the ones found the literature and reveal that even though there is a wide gap between real and potential GDP at the beginning of the period, it tends to narrow towards the end of the period as a result of the rise in oil prices. The GDP gap out of sample forecast shows that this gap, eventually, could fall as a result of the contraction in economic activity during 2009 and 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Acevedo Rueda, Rafael Alexis & Mora Mora, José U. & Harmath Fernández, Pedro Alexander, 2012. "La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR [Output Gap and Potential GDP in Venezuela: A SVAR Estimation]," MPRA Paper 58691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:58691
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. José U. Mora, 2008. "Relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 33(25), pages 61-86, january-j.
    5. Iris Claus, 2003. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 751-760.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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