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Relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy

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  • José U. Mora

    () (Department of Economics, University of Vermont. Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Los Andes)

Abstract

This paper uses a Cholesky Factorization in a var analysis to investigate the relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy during the 1960:i- 2004:ii period. The economy is assumed to be driven by foreign (U. S. gdp and oil prices) and domestic (exchange rate, fiscal, monetary, inflation, and output) orthogonal shocks. As shown by the empirical evidence foreign shocks tend to be relatively more important than domestic shocks. Precisely, oil price and U. S. gdp shocks tend to have permanent effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates. Monetary policy only has temporary effects on output and the nominal exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • José U. Mora, 2008. "Relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 33(25), pages 61-86, january-j.
  • Handle: RePEc:ula:econom:v:33:y:2008:i:25:p:61-86
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    File URL: ftp://iies.faces.ula.ve/Pdf/Revista25/Rev25Mora.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Karras, Georgios, 1993. "Sources of U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations: 1973-1989," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 47-68.
    6. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 80-102, February.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Ustorgio Mora Mora, 2015. "A supply and demand model for the Venezuelan economy," Working Papers 14, Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali.
    2. Acevedo Rueda, Rafael Alexis & Mora Mora, José U. & Harmath Fernández, Pedro Alexander, 2012. "La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR
      [Output Gap and Potential GDP in Venezuela: A SVAR Estimation]
      ," MPRA Paper 58691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-series models; business fluctuations; latin american economies.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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