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La Utilizaci�N De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque

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  • Martha Misas Arango
  • Enrique L�pez

Abstract

Para el gobierno, las autoridades en los bancos centrales y los investigadores que se preocupan por comprender la l�gica de las fluctuaciones econ�micas es la brecha del producto, definida como la desviaci�n en proporci�n del producto efectivo con relaci�n al potencial en ausencia de presiones inflacionarias, la medida individual m�s importante y que provee m�s informaci�n acerca de la fase del ciclo en donde se encuentra la econom�a. Raz�n por la cual �sta es utilizada ampliamente como indicador de coyuntura o como medida de los desequilibrios en los mercados de bienes en modelos macroecon�micos uniecuacionales o completos. En estos �ltimos, la brecha del producto es una variable clave en el an�lisis de la evoluci�n de los precios y los salarios. De otro lado, como lo mostr� Svensson (1997), un adecuado seguimiento de la brecha del producto es de especial importancia para los pa�ses que optan por una meta de inflaci�n como el objetivo esencial de su pol�tica. En este caso, la meta de inflaci�n se constituye en un elemento determinante de la evoluci�n de las condiciones monetarias. Una mala proyecci�n de la inflaci�n puede llevar a un mal ajuste de esas �ltimas y al incumplimiento repetido de las metas de inflaci�n, con el consecuente deterioro en la credibilidad de las autoridades. Riesgos que pueden reducirse, en buena medida, con un acertado seguimiento de la brecha del producto. Muy a pesar de su atractivo, la brecha del producto no es una variable que pueda obtenerse f�cilmente. Diversas hip�tesis pueden formularse en el marco de las t�cnicas econom�tricas para estimar dicha variable. Una hip�tesis com�nmente utilizada plantea que la brecha del producto es la componente transitoria no observada de la producci�n real o de una parte de esta �ltima. Si la producci�n real estuviese conformada por una componente transitoria y una tendencia determin�stica simple, no ser�a muy dif�cil medir la brecha de la producci�n como el componente transitorio de �sta.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas Arango & Enrique L�pez, 2000. "La Utilizaci�N De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque," Borradores de Economia 3096, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003096
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "La tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 26(57), pages 282-319, December.
    2. Martha Misas A & Enrique L�pez E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45.
    3. Martha Misas A>rango & Enrique L�pez Enciso & Juana T�llez Corredor & Jos� Fernando Escobar Restrepo, 2005. "La Inflaci�N Subyacente En Colombia: Un Enfoque De Tendencias Estoc�Sticas Comunes Asociadas A Un Vec Estructural," Borradores de Economia 3026, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Álvaro Chaves Castro., 2005. "Un modelo de cointegración estacional de la producción industrial, Colombia 1993-2005," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    5. Martha Misas A>rango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar Restrepo, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente En Colombia: Un Enfoque De Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas A Un Vec Estructural," Borradores de Economia 3026, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2002. "Modelos de crecimiento y estilos de desarrollo: varias precisiones y una conjetura," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia.
    7. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 365-395, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

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