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La Utilización De La Capacidad Instalada De La Industria En Colombia: Un Nuevo Enfoque

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Listed author(s):
  • Martha Misas Arango

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

Abstract

Para el gobierno, las autoridades en los bancos centrales y los investigadores que se preocupan por comprender la lógica de las fluctuaciones económicas es la brecha del producto, definida como la desviación en proporción del producto efectivo con relación al potencial en ausencia de presiones inflacionarias, la medida individual más importante y que provee más información acerca de la fase del ciclo en donde se encuentra la economía. Razón por la cual ésta es utilizada ampliamente como indicador de coyuntura o como medida de los desequilibrios en los mercados de bienes en modelos macroeconómicos uniecuacionales o completos. En estos últimos, la brecha del producto es una variable clave en el análisis de la evolución de los precios y los salarios. De otro lado, como lo mostró Svensson (1997), un adecuado seguimiento de la brecha del producto es de especial importancia para los países que optan por una meta de inflación como el objetivo esencial de su política. En este caso, la meta de inflación se constituye en un elemento determinante de la evolución de las condiciones monetarias. Una mala proyección de la inflación puede llevar a un mal ajuste de esas últimas y al incumplimiento repetido de las metas de inflación, con el consecuente deterioro en la credibilidad de las autoridades. Riesgos que pueden reducirse, en buena medida, con un acertado seguimiento de la brecha del producto. Muy a pesar de su atractivo, la brecha del producto no es una variable que pueda obtenerse fácilmente. Diversas hipótesis pueden formularse en el marco de las técnicas econométricas para estimar dicha variable. Una hipótesis comúnmente utilizada plantea que la brecha del producto es la componente transitoria no observada de la producción real o de una parte de esta última. Si la producción real estuviese conformada por una componente transitoria y una tendencia determinística simple, no sería muy difícil medir la brecha de la producción como el componente transitorio de ésta.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003096.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 30 Jul 2000
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003096
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Cited by:

  1. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "La Tasa De Cambio Real De Equilibrio En Colombia Y Su Desalineamiento: Estimación A Través De Un Modelo Svec," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 26(57), pages 282-319, December.
  2. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45, December.
  3. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente en Colombia: Un Enfoque de Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas a un VEC Estructural," Borradores de Economia 324, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 365-395 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  5. Álvaro Chaves Castro., 2005. "Un modelo de cointegración estacional de la producción industrial, Colombia 1993-2005," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
  6. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2002. "Modelos de crecimiento y estilos de desarrollo: varias precisiones y una conjetura," REVISTA APUNTES DEL CENES, UNIVERSIDAD PEDAGOGICA Y TECNOLOGICA DE COLOMBIA, June.

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