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A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU

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  • Jennifer V Greenslade
  • Richard G Pierse
  • Jumana Saleheen

Abstract

In this paper, the Kalman filter method is applied to UK Phillips-curve models and estimates are derived for the NAIRU from 1973 to 2000. The resulting profiles suggest that the NAIRU peaked around the mid-1980s and fell back thereafter. Structural changes in the labour market have reduced inflationary pressure from that source, and we suggest that temporary effects from real import prices and real oil prices were an important additional downward influence on inflation in the latter half of the 1990s. Some of the uncertainties around our NAIRU estimates are shown. But, even though there may be uncertainty about exactly where the NAIRU is, a variety of models suggest that unemployment was below the NAIRU for much of the second half of the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, 2003. "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:iab:iabmit:v:36:i:4:p:411-427 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2003. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interst rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 414-442 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Jaromír Hurník & David Navrátil, 2005. "Potential Output in the Czech Republic: A Production Function Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(3), pages 253-266.
    4. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alvaro Montenegro, 2005. "Introducción al filtro Kalman," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 002920, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    6. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan’s Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
    7. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Colin Ellis, 2006. "Elasticities, markups and technical progress: evidence from a state-space approach," Bank of England working papers 300, Bank of England.
    9. Durán, Christian & Ramos, Raúl, 2006. "NAIRU Evolution in the Spanish Economy: a Kalman Filter Estimation Approach/Evolución de la NAIRU en la economía española: una estimación mediante el filtro de Kalman," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 647(23á)-64, Agosto.
    10. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer V. Greenslade, 2006. "Measuring the UK short-run NAIRU," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 28-49, January.
    11. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    12. Punnoose Jacob & Martin Wong, 2018. "Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "The Kalman Filter Approach for Estimating the Natural Unemployment Rate in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(1), pages 148-159, February.
    14. Mark E Schweitzer, 2007. "Wage flexibility in Britain: some micro and macro evidence," Bank of England working papers 331, Bank of England.
    15. Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Staff Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
    16. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    17. Speigner, Bradley, 2014. "Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve," Bank of England working papers 519, Bank of England.
    18. Rebecca L. Driver & Jennifer V. Greenslade & Richard G. Pierse, 2006. "Whatever Happened to Goldilocks? The Role of Expectations in Estimates of the NAIRU in the US and the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 45-79, February.
    19. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.

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