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Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte

    (Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework which implies a constant relationship between inflation and unemployment. Lately there have been several studies which claim that the slope of the Phillips curve is a function of macroeconomic conditions and that the relationship is asymmetric. If this is true the assumption of linearity is too restrictive. In this paper linear Phillips curves for Australia, Sweden and the United States is tested for linearity and parameter constancy. The nonlinear alternative is specified as a smooth transition regression model. It turns out that linearity is rejected for both Australia and Sweden while the Phillips curve for the United States appears to be linear.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0124
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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_foa/wp_124.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos Para La Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 365, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. repec:iab:iabmit:v:36:i:4:p:411-427 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 84-102.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Orlando Gomes & Diana A. Mendes & Vivaldo M. Mendes & José Sousa Ramos, 2006. "Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policywith a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp1508, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    6. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], pages 411-427.
    7. D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2010. "Estimating Central Bank preferences in a small open economy: Sweden 1995-2009," MPRA Paper 26575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Semmler, Willi & Gross, Marco, 2017. "Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2004, European Central Bank.
    9. Islam, Faridul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Phillips curve in a small open economy: A time series exploration of North Cyprus," MPRA Paper 28397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Diego Moccero & Shingo Watanabe & Boris Cournède, 2011. "What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 854, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; dynamic model; econometric model building; encompassing; parameter constancy; smooth transition regression.;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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