IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v5y2025i6d10.1007_s43546-025-00829-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Empirical analysis of the mixed results of the Phillips curve in Tunisia: ARDL nexus NARDL

Author

Listed:
  • Lotfi Masmoudi

    (University of Sfax)

  • Rima Aloulou

    (University of Sfax)

  • Kamel Helali

    (University of Sfax)

Abstract

This article aims to investigate the nature and characteristics of the correlation between inflation and Tunisia’s unemployment rate from 1970 to 2020. Tunisia has experienced one of the highest unemployment and inflation rates in the Mediterranean Area. The empirical study demonstrates a long-term equilibrium between inflation and unemployment using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The ARDL model’s results indicate that the unemployment rate is significantly and negatively impacted by the inflation rate, with a value of -0.526. However, based on the NARDL model’s results, we observe a long-term asymmetric effect. More precisely, we observe a positive and significant impact of low unemployment, evaluated at 0.581, and a negative and significant effect of high unemployment, evaluated at -0.695. The rigidity of labor market regulations has led to distortions that hinder the Tunisian labor market’s smooth operation. It is recommended that these “dysfunctions” be eliminated to increase the efficiency of the labor market’s operation. The quest for greater labor flexibility will make Tunisia’s labor market mechanisms function usually and efficiently.

Suggested Citation

  • Lotfi Masmoudi & Rima Aloulou & Kamel Helali, 2025. "Empirical analysis of the mixed results of the Phillips curve in Tunisia: ARDL nexus NARDL," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(6), pages 1-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-025-00829-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-025-00829-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-025-00829-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-025-00829-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Inflation; Unemployment; ARDL; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-025-00829-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.