IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v11y2023i1p29-d1035607.html

Impact of Inflation in Different States of Unemployment: Evidence with the Phillips Curve in South Africa from 2008 to 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Eugene Msizi Buthelezi

    (Department of Economics, University of Free State, Bloemfontein 9301, South Africa)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of inflation in different states of unemployment: evidence with the Phillips curve in South Africa. The contribution of this paper is to examine the impact of inflation on different states of unemployment in South Africa. The Paper employs Markov-switching dynamic regression and data from 2008 to 2022. It was found that there are 2 states of unemployment mean rates of 25.55% and 33.59%, expected to run for 67 and 7 quarters, respectively. There is a 98.51% and 86.99% chance of a move and then returning to the same state, respectively. In states 1 and 2, a 1% increase in inflation results in a 2.61% increase and a 0.06% decrease in unemployment, respectively. There are times when the Phillips curve rationale is not holding. The government needs to increase the channels of employment opportunities. There is a need to re-look at the trade-offs between inflation and unemployment in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Impact of Inflation in Different States of Unemployment: Evidence with the Phillips Curve in South Africa from 2008 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:1:p:29-:d:1035607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/1/29/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/1/29/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2020. "Markov-Switching Model of Family Income Quintile Shares," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 207-222, June.
    2. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    6. Amusa, Kafayat & Gupta, Rangan & Karolia, Shaakira & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D., 2013. "The long-run impact of inflation in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 798-812.
    7. Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen, 2020. "Is the Phillips Curve Still Alive?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(2), pages 121-144, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lotfi Masmoudi & Rima Aloulou & Kamel Helali, 2025. "Empirical analysis of the mixed results of the Phillips curve in Tunisia: ARDL nexus NARDL," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(6), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Dr.Muhammad Shakeel & Muhammad Usman & Arooj Zahra & Aqsa Bakhshi, 2023. "The Role of Consumer Prices, Economic Growth and Rising Population in Determining Unemployment: A Time Series Evidence from Cyprus Economy," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(3), pages 334-339.
    3. Khwazi Magubane, 2024. "Exploring causal interactions between macroprudential policy and financial cycles in South Africa," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(5), pages 513-531, July.
    4. Stephen G. Hall, 2025. "An optimal inflation rate for South Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-29, June.
    5. Chigozie Azunna & Lucius Botes, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between inflation and unemployment in South Africa A historical, theoretical, and empirical review," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(3), pages 294-302, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. Nazif Çatik & Christopher Martin & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, September.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
    4. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    6. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    7. Hiranya K. Nath & Jayanta Sarkar, 2019. "Inflation and relative price variability: new evidence from survey-based measures of inflation expectations in Australia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 2001-2024, June.
    8. Robert Amano & Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada," Staff Working Papers 97-14, Bank of Canada.
    9. Brou, Jean-Claude Kouakou & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hueber, Olivier, 2025. "Harmonizing public debt and creating convergence clubs in sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).
    10. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    11. Mellár, Tamás & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "A kibocsátási rés becslése többváltozós állapottérmodellekben. Szuperhiszterézis és további empirikus eredmények [Estimating output gap in multivariate state space models. Super-hysteresis and further empirical evidence]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 557-591.
    12. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    13. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    14. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    15. Dighe, Ranjit S. & Schmitt, Elizabeth Dunne, 2010. "Did U.S. wages become stickier between the world wars?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 165-181, August.
    16. Gordon de Brouwer, 1998. "Estimating Output Gaps," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9809, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    18. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2016. "Nonlinearities in Inflation and Growth Nexus: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 471-512, September.
    20. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:1:p:29-:d:1035607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.