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Is the Phillips Curve Still Alive?

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Reinbold
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

A.W. Phillips's discovery that inflation is negatively correlated with unemployment served as a heuristic model for conducting monetary policy; but the flattening of the Phillips curve post-1970 has divided debate on this empirical relation into two camps: "The Phillips curve is alive and well," and "The Phillips curve is dead." However, this dichotomy oversimplifies the issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen, 2020. "Is the Phillips Curve Still Alive?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(2), pages 121-144, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:88587
    DOI: 10.20955/r.102.121-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe, 2019. "Informal Sector Misallocation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3065-3098, December.
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    3. Neumark, David & Munguía Corella, Luis Felipe, 2021. "Do minimum wages reduce employment in developing countries? A survey and exploration of conflicting evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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    5. Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2009. "Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 335-358, January.
    6. repec:wbk:wbpubs:6730 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Firms, Informality, and Development: Theory and Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2015-2047, August.
    8. Bernal Raquel, 2009. "The Informal Labor Market in Colombia: identification and characterization," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Inflation Dynamics and Forecast: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2101, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Impact of Inflation in Different States of Unemployment: Evidence with the Phillips Curve in South Africa from 2008 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    4. Mohit Kumar Shrivastav & Saranga Gogoi & Hemangi Dhanke, 2025. "Navigating Post-COVID Inflationary Pressures: A Systematic Review of India’s Monetary Policy Framework and its Economic Impact," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(15), pages 389-394, March.
    5. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Yakubu EGEDE & Umaru AMINU & Aminu HAMMA & Caroline Iyabo ADEMOLA-JOHN, 2023. "Revisiting the Validity of Phillips Curve in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach," Management and Economics Review, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 24-34, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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