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Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Ramos Francia
  • Alberto Torres García

Abstract

The paper describes the dynamics of inflation in the Mexican economy from 1992 to 2006 using the New Phillips curve framework. The purpose is to identify key structural characteristics of the economy (structural parameters) that define the short-run dynamics of inflation. Results show that despite a previous history of high inflation, a hybrid version of the New Phillips curve fits the data well for the period 1992-2006. The short-run dynamics of inflation in Mexico are best described when both backward and forward looking components are considered. In addition, estimates for the sub-sample 1997-2006 show that as inflation has fallen, on average, prices remain fixed for a longer horizon, the fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule of thumb to set their price decreases and the forward looking component of the inflation process gains importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Ramos Francia & Alberto Torres García, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2006-15, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-15
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    File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B2F779A17-41A7-9CA8-64C5-73DC5C89A915%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Egorov D.A. & Perevyshina E.A., 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, July.
    3. José J. Sidaoui & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Mexico: recent developments," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 363-394 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation dynamics; Phillips Curve;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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