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Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve

  • Manuel Ramos Francia
  • Alberto Torres García
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    The paper describes the dynamics of inflation in the Mexican economy from 1992 to 2006 using the New Phillips curve framework. The purpose is to identify key structural characteristics of the economy (structural parameters) that define the short-run dynamics of inflation. Results show that despite a previous history of high inflation, a hybrid version of the New Phillips curve fits the data well for the period 1992-2006. The short-run dynamics of inflation in Mexico are best described when both backward and forward looking components are considered. In addition, estimates for the sub-sample 1997-2006 show that as inflation has fallen, on average, prices remain fixed for a longer horizon, the fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule of thumb to set their price decreases and the forward looking component of the inflation process gains importance.

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    File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7BDF19BE24-9E61-2159-B065-1BD2F3D76FAE%7D.pdf
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    Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2006-15.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2006
    Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-15
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.banxico.org.mx

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    1. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    6. Manuel Ramos Francia & Alberto Torres García, 2005. "Reducing Inflation Through Inflation Targeting: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2005-01, Banco de México.
    7. Sbordone, Argia, 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Seminar Papers 653, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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    12. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio E. Noriega, 2007. "Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2007-01, Banco de México.
    13. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    15. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2008. "Forecasting Canadian time series with the New Keynesian model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 138-165, February.
    16. Aucremanne, Luc & Dhyne, Emmanuel, 2005. "Time-dependent versus state-dependent pricing: a panel data approach to the determinants of Belgian consumer price changes," Working Paper Series 0462, European Central Bank.
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    18. Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    19. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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