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Time-dependent versus State-dependent Pricing: A Panel Data Approach to the Determinants of Belgian Consumer Price Changes

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  • Luc Aucremanne

    () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Emmanuel Dhyne

    () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

Using Logistic Normal regressions, we model the price-setting behaviour for a large sample of Belgian consumer prices over the January 1989 - January 2001 period. Our results indicate that time-dependent features are very important, particularly an infinite mixture of Calvo pricing rules and truncation at specific horizons. Truncation is mainly a characteristic of pricing in the service sector where it mostly takes the form of annual Taylor contracts typically renewed at the end of December. Several other variables, including some that can be considered as state variables, are also found to be statistically significant. This is particularly so for accumulated sectoral inflation since the last price change. Once heterogeneity and the role of accumulated inflation are acknowledged, hazard functions become mildly upward-sloping, even in a low inflation regime. The contribution of the state-dependent variables to the pseudo-R² of our equations is, however, not particularly important.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Aucremanne & Emmanuel Dhyne, 2005. "Time-dependent versus State-dependent Pricing: A Panel Data Approach to the Determinants of Belgian Consumer Price Changes," Working Paper Research 66, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200504-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Dhyne & Jerzy Konieczny, 2007. "Temporal Distribution of Price Changes: Staggering in the Large and Synchronization in the Small," Working Paper series 01_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Patrick Lünnemann & Ladislav Wintr, 2006. "Are internet prices sticky?," BCL working papers 22, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva, 2014. "The effect of VAT rate on inflation in Latvia: evidence from CPI microdata," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(21), pages 2520-2533, July.
    4. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
    5. Fabio Rumler & Alfred Stiglbauer & Josef Baumgartner, 2011. "Patterns and Determinants of Price Changes: Analysing Individual Consumer Prices in Austria," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 336-350, August.
    6. Philip Vermeulen & Daniel A. Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2012. "Price Setting in the Euro Area: Some Stylized Facts from Individual Producer Price Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1631-1650, December.
    7. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    8. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2006. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 562-574, 04-05.
    9. Lünnemann, Patrick & Mathä, Thomas Y., 2005. "Consumer price behaviour in Luxembourg: evidence from micro CPI data," Working Paper Series 541, European Central Bank.
    10. Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12158, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    11. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263.
    12. Hoffmann, Johannes & Jonker, Nicole & Lünnemann, Patrick & Vilmunen, Jouko & Dhyne, Emmanuel & Dias, Daniel & Le Bihan, Hervé & Álvarez, Luis J. & Veronese, Giovanni & Rumler, Fabio, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylized facts from individual consumer price data," Working Paper Series 524, European Central Bank.
    13. Lein, Sarah M., 2010. "When do firms adjust prices? Evidence from micro panel data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 696-715, September.
    14. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Kalnberzina, Krista, 2012. "Price setting behaviour in Latvia: Econometric evidence from CPI micro data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2115-2124.
    15. Manuel Ramos Francia & Alberto Torres García, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2006-15, Banco de México.
    16. Claire Loupias & Patrick Sevestre, 2013. "Costs, Demand, and Producer Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 315-327, March.
    17. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working Paper Research 74, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. Dias, D.A. & Marques, C. Robalo & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2007. "Time- or state-dependent price setting rules? Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1589-1613, October.
    20. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2010. "Consumer price behaviour: evidence from Luxembourg micro data," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 177-192.
    21. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    22. Alvarez Luis J. & Burriel Pablo, 2010. "Is a Calvo Price Setting Model Consistent with Individual Price Data?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, May.
    23. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Krista Kalnberzina, 2010. "Price Setting Behaviour in Latvia: Descriptive Evidence from CPI Microdata," Discussion Papers 2010/01, Latvijas Banka.
    24. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2017. "Sticky Belief Adjustment: A Double Hurdle Model and Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 40, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    25. Patrick Lünnemann & Ladislav Wintr, 2011. "Price Stickiness in the US and Europe Revisited: Evidence from Internet Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 593-621, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer prices; time-dependent pricing; state-dependent pricing; Calvo model; Truncated Calvo model; Taylor contracts;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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