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Time-dependent versus State-dependent Pricing: A Panel Data Approach to the Determinants of Belgian Consumer Price Changes

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Listed author(s):
  • Luc Aucremanne

    ()

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Emmanuel Dhyne

    ()

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Using Logistic Normal regressions, we model the price-setting behaviour for a large sample of Belgian consumer prices over the January 1989 - January 2001 period. Our results indicate that time-dependent features are very important, particularly an infinite mixture of Calvo pricing rules and truncation at specific horizons. Truncation is mainly a characteristic of pricing in the service sector where it mostly takes the form of annual Taylor contracts typically renewed at the end of December. Several other variables, including some that can be considered as state variables, are also found to be statistically significant. This is particularly so for accumulated sectoral inflation since the last price change. Once heterogeneity and the role of accumulated inflation are acknowledged, hazard functions become mildly upward-sloping, even in a low inflation regime. The contribution of the state-dependent variables to the pseudo-R² of our equations is, however, not particularly important.

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    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp66.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 66.

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    Length: 63 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2005
    Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200504-1
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    Keywords: consumer prices; time-dependent pricing; state-dependent pricing; Calvo model; Truncated Calvo model; Taylor contracts;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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    1. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
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    10. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
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    13. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising microfoundations for observed inflation persistence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 60, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    14. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
    15. L. Aucremanne & M. Druant, 2004. "Price-setting behaviour in Belgium : what can be learned from an ad hoc survey ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 17-47, December.
    16. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2004. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: stylised facts using consumer price micro data," Working Papers 0422, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
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    18. Bo E. Honoré & Luojia Hu, 2004. "Estimation of Discrete Time Duration Models with Grouped Data," CAM Working Papers 2004-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    19. Luc Aucremanne & Emmanuel Dhyne, 2004. "How frequently do prices change? Evidence based on the micro data underlying the Belgian CPI," Working Paper Research 44, National Bank of Belgium.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Dhyne & Jerzy Konieczny, 2007. "Temporal Distribution of Price Changes: Staggering in the Large and Synchronization in the Small," Working Paper Series 01_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Philip Vermeulen & Daniel A. Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2012. "Price Setting in the Euro Area: Some Stylized Facts from Individual Producer Price Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1631-1650, December.
    3. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263.
    4. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Álvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lünnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylized facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working Paper Research 74, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Claire Loupias & Patrick Sevestre, 2013. "Costs, Demand, and Producer Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 315-327, March.
    6. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Alvarez Luis J. & Burriel Pablo, 2010. "Is a Calvo Price Setting Model Consistent with Individual Price Data?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, May.
    8. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Krista Kalnberzina, 2010. "Price Setting Behaviour in Latvia: Descriptive Evidence from CPI Microdata," Discussion Papers 2010/01, Latvijas Banka.

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