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Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Yazgan M. Ege

    (Istanbul Bilgi University)

  • Yilmazkuday Hakan

    (Istanbul Bilgi University)

Abstract

Recent empirical research on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) does not offer any supporting evidence for its benchmark version in which all firms are forward-looking. There is, however, empirical support for a modified, hybrid, NPKC, in which only a proportion of the firms that use a forward-looking rule to set prices.This paper estimates both the benchmark and the hybrid versions of the NKPC using Turkish data. In contrast with the previous applications on developed countries like the U.S. and several Euro area countries, we find empirical support for the benchmark NPKC. This support persists even after controlling for the weak identification problem which has been a serious concern in generalized method of moment estimation. Moreover, the hybrid NKPC is refuted by the data, i.e. the backward-looking behavior is found to be statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Yazgan M. Ege & Yilmazkuday Hakan, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:9:y:2005:i:1:n:re1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    2. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Finite Sample Limited Information Inference Methods for Structural Equations and Models with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(3), pages 815-843, August.
    4. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods," Staff Working Papers 04-11, Bank of Canada.
    6. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "Investment Adjustment Costs: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1469-1494, December.
    2. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2007. "Inflation targeting supported by managed exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2011-2026.
    3. Steffen Ahrens & Stephen Sacht, 2014. "Estimating a high-frequency New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 607-628, March.
    4. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Filiz Yesilyurt & J. Elhorst, 2014. "A regional analysis of inflation dynamics in Turkey," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    7. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    8. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
    9. Selen Baser & Hande Kucuk & Fethi Ogunc, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey : In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1311, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, 2007. "Investment adjustment costs: evidence from UK and US industries," Bank of England working papers 332, Bank of England.
    11. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey," MPRA Paper 16770, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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