IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The long-run impact of inflation in South Africa

  • Amusa, Kafayat
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Karolia, Shaakira
  • Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D.

This paper evaluates the hypothesis of long-run super-neutrality of money (LRSN) within the context of the South African economy. The long-run impact of inflation on the interest rate and subsequently, output is estimated by employing a trivariate structural vector autoregression model, using quarterly data for the period of 1960:1 to 2010:1. The estimation results suggest that the hypothesis of LRSN cannot be rejected, thereby suggesting that monetary policy in South Africa cannot be used to solve the large and persistent unemployment problem in South Africa, which is understandable, since unemployment is inherently structural and is due to skills-shortage. This is further supported by our one of our other results which shows that significant long-run impact on output is obtained from technological improvements.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189381300015X
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 35 (2013)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 798-812

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:5:p:798-812
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
  2. H. Sonmez Atesoglu & Jamie Emerson, 2009. "Long-run monetary neutrality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2025-2036.
  3. Puah, Chin-Hong & Habibullah, M.S. & Abu Mansor, Shazali, 2008. "On the Long-Run Monetary Neutrality: Evidence from the SEACEN Countries," MPRA Paper 31762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Monetary Policy and the Fisher Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 1610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2009. "Comparing South African Inflation Volatility Across Monetary Policy Regimes: An Application Of Saphe Cracking," Working Papers 200906, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Logan Rangasamy, 2009. "How persistent is South Africa's inflation," Working Papers 115, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  7. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 645, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987. "On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-499, December.
  10. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  11. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2010. "Dynamic Time Inconsistency And The South African Reserve Bank," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 76-88, 03.
  13. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 89-105, May.
  14. Singh, Kanhaiya & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2003. "The inflation-growth nexus in India: an empirical analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 377-396, June.
  15. Frederick H.Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2007. "Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 219-238, July-Dece.
  16. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  17. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  18. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Guy Debelle & Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Framework for Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Issues 15, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing long run neutrality," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  21. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in South Africa," Working Papers 11/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  22. Carmichael, Jeffrey, 1982. "Money and Growth: Some Old Theorems from a New Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 58(163), pages 386-94, December.
  23. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
  24. Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2010. "Evaluating the Welfare Cost of Inflation in a Monetary Endogenous Growth General Equilibrium Model: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201002, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  25. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
  26. Wallace, Frederick H., 2005. "Long Run Money Neutrality: The Case of Guatemala," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 5, pages 127-138, Octubre.
  27. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  28. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  29. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, EconWPA.
  30. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  31. Kirsten L. Ludi & Marc Ground, 2006. "Investigating the Bank-Lending Channel in South Africa: A VAR Approach," Working Papers 200604, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:5:p:798-812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.