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The Use of Financial Market Indicators by Monetary Authorities

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  • Paul Mylonas
  • Sebastian Schich

Abstract

In a new and changing environment for monetary policy, an interesting issue to examine is the use of financial market indicators by monetary policy authorities. With this in mind, the OECD canvassed a number of major central banks to get their views. This paper presents a synthesis of the responses and respects the confidentiality of individual central banks. Its main conclusions are as follows. In principle, financial market variables can provide additional information regarding the shocks that strike the economy, such as their perceived size and source as well as the process of feeding through the economy. A complementary function is to gauge market anticipations and reactions to policy changes, including the credibility of policy objectives. Regarding policy setting, monetary authorities are clearly aware of the dangers of mechanically targeting this information, which could lead to circularities. However, in some cases, they seem to find financial market indicators useful in ... Dans un environnement de politique monétaire nouveau et en pleine évolution, il nous a semblé intéressant d’examiner l’usage que les autorités de la politique monétaire font des indicateurs du marché financier. C’est dans cette optique que l’OCDE a sollicité l’avis d’un certain nombre de grandes banques centrales. Ce document présente une synthèse de l’ensemble de leurs opinions, tout en respectant la confidentialité de chacune d’entre elles, dont les principales conclusions sont les suivantes. En principe, les variables concernant le marché financier peuvent fournir des informations supplémentaires en ce qui concerne les secousses qui frappent l’économie, en ce sens qu’elles en perçoivent l’ampleur, la source aussi bien que les répercussions sur le système économique. Une de leurs fonctions complémentaires est d’évaluer les anticipations du marché et les réactions aux changements de politique, ainsi que la crédibilité des objectifs politiques. Bien que les autorités monétaires ...

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Mylonas & Sebastian Schich, 1999. "The Use of Financial Market Indicators by Monetary Authorities," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 223, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:223-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/853022881453
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    Cited by:

    1. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    2. Berlemann, Michael & Elzemann, Jorg, 2006. "Are expectations on inflation and election outcomes connected? An empirical analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 354-359, June.
    3. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Peter Christoffersen & Stefano Mazzotta, 2004. "The Informational Content of Over-the-Counter Currency Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-16, CIRANO.
    5. Guillaume Guerrero & Nicolas Million, 2004. "The US Phillips Curve and inflation expectations: A State Space Markov-Switching explanatory model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 133, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Cihan Yalcin & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates : Does It Tell About Future Inflation," Discussion Papers 0002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Philip Liu, 2004. "Improving implementation of inflation targeting in New Zealand: an investigation of the Reserve Bank's inflation errors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank policies; financial market indicators; indicateurs de la politique monétaire; indicateurs du marché financier; monetary policy indicators; politiques des banques centrales;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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