IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ltv/wpaper/200303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context

Author

Listed:
  • Jelena Zubkova

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

This paper examines applicability of various models of the yield curve construction to the Latvian money and government securities markets, and analyses the information content implied in the yield curve. The rejection of hypothesis about the existence of a zero risk premium leads to an inference that forward rates in general do not ensure unbiased forecasts of spot rates, and the pure interest rate expectations theory cannot be applied in interest rate forecasting. Long-term interest rates contain a risk premium that is other than zero. This conforms well with the results obtained from studies conducted on the financial markets of developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
    • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bank.lv/public_files/images/img_lb/izdevumi/english/citas/int_rate_term_structure.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.macroeconomics.lv/sites/default/files/int_rate_term_structure.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich A & Fong, H Gifford, 1982. " Term Structure Modeling Using Exponential Splines," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 339-348, May.
    3. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
    7. Leiderman, Leonardo & Blejer, Mario I., 1987. "The term structure of interest rates during a financial reform: Argentina 1977-81," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 285-299, April.
    8. Attila Csajbók, 1998. "Zero-coupon yield curve estimation from a central bank perspective," MNB Working Papers 1998/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
    11. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    12. Dahlquist, Magnus & Jonsson, Gunnar, 1995. "The information in Swedish short-maturity forward rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1115-1131, June.
    13. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
    14. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
    15. Mark Deacon & Andrew Derry, 1994. "Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bank of England working papers 24, Bank of England.
    16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    17. Alois Geyer & Richard Mader, 1999. "Estimation of the term structure of interest rates - A parametric approach," Working Papers 37, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    18. Dahlquist, Magnus & Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. " Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 163-183, June.
    19. Hurn, A Stan & Moody, Terry & Muscatelli, V Anton, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 419-436, July.
    20. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative specifications of the German term structure and its information content regarding inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    22. Paul Mylonas & Sebastian Schich, 1999. "The Use of Financial Market Indicators by Monetary Authorities," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 223, OECD Publishing.
    23. Tonny Lybek & Abdourahmane Sarr, 2002. "Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/232, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Bolder, David & Streliski, David, 1999. "Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 84, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure of interest rates; risk premium; the Nelson–Siegel model;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Konstantins Benkovskis). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bolgvlv.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.