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The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market

Listed author(s):
  • Hurn, A Stan
  • Moody, Terry
  • Muscatelli, V Anton

The authors test the conjecture that the highly competitive nature of the London interbank market will result in longer-term rates determined primarily by expectations of future short-term rates. In so doing, the authors employ both cointegration tests and the vector autoregressive approach proposed by J. Y. Campbell and R. J. Shiller. Their results are generally supportive of the expectations hypothesis and, in contrast to all previous studies which have employed the vector autoregressive approach, the authors cannot reject the restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis. The only indication of marginal deviations from the expectations hypothesis may be found at the very short end of the interbank spectrum. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 47 (1995)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 419-436

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:47:y:1995:i:3:p:419-36
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  1. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1988. "Interpreting Cointegrated Models," Scholarly Articles 3221492, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 1345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
  5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
  7. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L & Lee, Sangkyu, 1992. "Interaction between Autocorrelation and Conditional Heteroscedasticity: A Random-Coefficient Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 133-142, April.
  8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
  9. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  11. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1987. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, January.
  12. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  14. Anderson, H.M. & Granger, C.W.G. & Hall, A.D., 1990. "Treasury Bi;; Yield Curves And Cointegration," Papers 215, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  15. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-366, July.
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