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The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market

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  • Hurn, A Stan
  • Moody, Terry
  • Muscatelli, V Anton

Abstract

The authors test the conjecture that the highly competitive nature of the London interbank market will result in longer-term rates determined primarily by expectations of future short-term rates. In so doing, the authors employ both cointegration tests and the vector autoregressive approach proposed by J. Y. Campbell and R. J. Shiller. Their results are generally supportive of the expectations hypothesis and, in contrast to all previous studies which have employed the vector autoregressive approach, the authors cannot reject the restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis. The only indication of marginal deviations from the expectations hypothesis may be found at the very short end of the interbank spectrum. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Hurn, A Stan & Moody, Terry & Muscatelli, V Anton, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 419-436, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:47:y:1995:i:3:p:419-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:adr:anecst:y:2001:i:62:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jacob Oduor & Moses Muse Sichei & Samuel Kiplangat Tiriongo & Chris Shimba, 2014. "Working Paper 202 - Segmentation and efficiency of the interbank market and their implication for the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2106, African Development Bank.
    3. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
    5. Keith Cuthbertson & Don Bredin, 2000. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure - The Case of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 267-281.
    6. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 6310, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2007.
    7. S. Lardic & V. Mignon, 2002. "Fractional cointegration and term structure of interest rates," THEMA Working Papers 2002-28, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    8. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2000. "Are German money market rates well behaved?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 347-360, March.
    9. Éric Jondeau, 2001. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme permet-elle de rendre compte de l'évolution des taux d'intérêt sur euro-devise ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 62, pages 139-174.
    10. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
    11. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "The expectations hypothesis and decoupling of short- and long-term US interest rates: A pairwise approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 301-313.
    12. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    13. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
    14. M. Dolores Robles Fernandez & Rafael Florez De Frutos, 2000. "Time varying term premia and risk: the case of the Spanish interbank money market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 243-260.
    15. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade, 2003. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 19-43.
    16. Brooks, Chris & Rew, Alistair G., 2002. "Testing for non-stationarity and cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break: an application to EuroSterling interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 65-90, January.
    17. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
    18. Bredin, Don, 2001. "Alternative Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and the term structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 723-736, December.
    20. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    21. Musti, Silvana & D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura, 2008. "Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    22. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs français et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Working papers 55, Banque de France.
    23. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS

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