Exchange Rate Regimes and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure
This paper uses weekly data on short-term eurorates for ten countries for the period 1979–96 to document that the ability of the expectations hypothesis (EH) to account for movements in the term structure is greater, and that short-term interest rates are more predictable, under fixed than under floating exchange rates. The paper also shows that the higher predictability does not arise solely because of monetary policy responses to speculative pressures in the foreign exchange markets: while it is more difficult to reject the EH in periods of exchange market turmoil, the EH is not rejected in tranquil periods.
|Date of creation:||Nov 1997|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kugler, Peter, 1990. "The term structure of Euro interest rates and rational expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 234-244, June.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983.
"Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
- Dahlquist, Magnus & Jonsson, Gunnar, 1995. "The information in Swedish short-maturity forward rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1115-1131, June.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1988.
" The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 339-356, June.
- Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1987. "The predictive power of the term structure during recent monetary regimes," Research Paper 8708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986.
"The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Monetary policy and the behaviour of interest rates: are long rates excessively volatile?," BIS Working Papers 34, Bank for International Settlements.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993.
"Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the ERM 1979-1992," NBER Working Papers 3795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Kugler, 1988. "An Empirical Note on the Term Structure and Interest Rate Stabilization Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 789-792.
- Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1996. "The Expectation Theory: Tests on French, German, and American Euro-Rates," Working papers 35, Banque de France.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.