IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey

  • Petra Gerlach-Kristen

    ()

The term structure is an important transmitter of, and indicator for, monetary policy. This paper studies the Swiss term structure using monthly data from 1989 to 2005. We study the impact of the new monetary policy strategy that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) adopted at the beginning of 2000 on three aspects of the term structure. First, we test the expectations hypothesis and find it confirmed at the short end of the yield curve. At the long end, time-varying term premia seem present. Second, we ask whether the yield curve contains information regarding future inflation and economic activity. We find that a steepening of the yield curve predicted an increase in economic activity in the short term before the change in policy strategy, but not thereafter. Third, we study the contemporaneous reaction of the term structure to macroeconomic conditions and conclude that the SNB’s commitment to stabilizing inflation may have become more credible after the change in the monetary policy strategy. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2007

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-007-0048-4
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.

Volume (Year): 21 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 221-240

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:21:y:2007:i:2:p:221-240
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=119763

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  3. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Term Structure of Euro-Rates: Some Evidence in Support of the Expectations Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  6. Hsu, Chiente & Kugler, Peter, 1997. "The Revival of the Expectations Hypothesis of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 115-120, August.
  7. Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
  8. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Chiente Hsu & Peter Kugler, 1996. "Term Premium and Volatility: A Nonlinear Analysis of the Swiss Interest Rates," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 132(II), pages 153-176, June.
  11. Baltensperger, Ernst & Fischer, Andreas M & Jordan, Thomas J., 2006. "Strong Goal Independence and Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5915, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2015. "Monetary policy and risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 285-307.
  13. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
  14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  16. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
  17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
  18. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1997. "Exchange rate regimes and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," BIS Working Papers 43, Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Kugler, Peter, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Reaction and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 217-24, July.
  21. Peter Kugler, 1988. "An Empirical Note on the Term Structure and Interest Rate Stabilization Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 789-792.
  22. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  23. Philipp Hildebrand, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Financial Markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 7-18, April.
  24. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Iwan Meier, 1999. "Estimating The Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Swiss Case," Working Papers 99.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  26. Kugler, Peter, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates and regime shifts: Some empirical results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-126, January.
  27. Jürg Tobler, 1999. "Ein zweistufiges Verfahren zur Schätzung der Zinskurve," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 135(I), pages 41-74, March.
  28. Urs Beer, 1990. "Eine Methode zur Schätzung der Zinsstruktur in der Schweiz," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 126(I), pages 39-50, March.
  29. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
  30. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas Jordan & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(2), pages 244-272, June.
  32. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Japan's approach to monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 2, pages 39-43.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:21:y:2007:i:2:p:221-240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.