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Capacity constraints, price adjustment, and monetary policy

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Abstract

The short-run Phillips curve describes a positive short-run relationship between the level of economic activity and inflation. When the level of demand in the economy as a whole runs ahead of the level of output that the economy can supply in the short run, price pressures increase and inflation rises. This article reviews the origins of the short-run Phillips curve with particular emphasis on the long-standing idea that the shape of this curve may be non-linear, with inflation becoming more sensitive to changes in output when the cycle of economic activity is high than when it is low. This type of non-linearity in the short-run Phillips curve, which is typically motivated by the effects of capacity constraints that limit the ability of the economy to expand in the short run, has recently attracted renewed attention. The article surveys recent research that finds some evidence of this type of non-linearity in the Phillips curve in Canada and considers the potential implications for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Capacity constraints, price adjustment, and monetary policy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Spring), pages 39-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:1997:y:1997:i:spring97:p:39-56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-073, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Garry J. Schinasi & Alessandro Prati, 1997. "European Monetary Union and International Capital Markets; Structural Implications and Risks," IMF Working Papers 97/62, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Norbert Funke & Mike Kennedy, 1997. "International Implications of European Economic and Monetary Union," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 174, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Fortin, 2001. "Interest Rates, Unemployment and Inflation in the 1990s: The Canadian Experience," The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress,in: Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director & France St-Hilaire, Vice-President , Research & Keith Banting, Di (ed.), The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress 2001: The Longest Decade: Canada in the 1990s, volume 1 Centre for the Study of Living Standards;The Institutute for Research on Public Policy.
    2. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Murphy, Emma, 2005. "Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: Evidence from a large panel of survey data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Mario Nigrinis Ospina, 2004. "Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Sarah Lein & Eva Koeberl, 2009. "Capacity utilisation, constraints and price adjustments under the microscope," KOF Working papers 09-239, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Pedro Pablo Alvarez Lois, 2000. "Asymmetries In The Capacity-Inflation Trade-Off," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 470.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    6. Dupasquier, Chantal & Ricketts, Nicholas, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada.
    7. Gross, Marco, 2009. "Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1119, European Central Bank.
    8. Semmler, Willi & Gross, Marco, 2017. "Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2004, European Central Bank.
    9. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2005. "Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 64-80 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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