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Asymmetries In The Capacity-Inflation Trade-Off

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the joint dynamics of two key macroeconomic variables for the conduct of monetary policy: inflation and the aggregate capacity utilization rate. An econometric procedure useful for estimating dynamic rational expectation models with unobserved components is developed and applied in this context. The method combines the flexibility of the unobserved components approach, based on the Kalman recursion, with the power of the general method of moments estimation procedure. A 'hyb id' Phillips curve relating inflation to the capacity utilization gap and incorporating forward and backward looking components is estimated. The results show that such a relationship in non-linear: the slope of the Phillips curve depends significantly on the magnitude of the capacity gap. These findings provide support for studying the implications of asymmetricmonetary policy rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Pablo Alvarez Lois, 2000. "Asymmetries In The Capacity-Inflation Trade-Off," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 470.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    • Handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:470.00
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    Cited by:

    1. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
    2. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Nonlinearity of the inflation-output trade-off and time-varying price rigidity," Working Papers 2013-02, CEPII research center.
    3. Dobrynskaya, V.V., 2008. "Asymmetric price rigidity and the optimal interest rate defense of the exchange rate: Some evidence for the US," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 713-724.
    4. Wolters Maik H. & Tillmann Peter, 2015. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 161-182, April.
    5. Pedro Pablo Alvarez Lois, 2000. "Endogenous capacity utilization and the asymmetric effects of monetary policy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 469.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacity Constraints; Phillips Curve; NAICU Gap; Kalman-GMM Algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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