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Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?

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  • Mario Nigrinis Ospina

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Abstract

Este trabajo presenta evidencia empírica sobre la no linealidad de la curva de Phillips en Colombia partiendo de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Así mismo, los resultados sugieren un desplazamiento de la curva hacia abajo a partir de 1999. De esta manera la economía colombiana puede haber encontrado un menor nivel de inflación bajo condiciones de pleno empleo de los factores. La técnica econométrica que se empleó para probar la hipótesis fue el Filtro de Kalman con párametro variable en el tiempo. Los aportes del trabajo al estado del arte del estudio de la curva de Phillips en Colombia son tres. Primero la técnica de estimación utilizada. Segundo se prueba la existencia de asimetrías a partir de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Finalmente se encuentra un nivel de UCI de inflación estable.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Nigrinis Ospina, 2004. "Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:282
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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra282.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya, 2012. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case," Borradores de Economia 705, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004247, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, 2004. "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2005. "Medidas de Riesgo, Características y Técnicas de Medición: Una Aplicación del VAR y el ES a la Tasa Interbancaria de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 343, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Héctor Mauricio Nuñez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Curva de Phillips; Brecha de utilización de Capacidad Instalada; Asimetría;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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