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Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a traves de Minimos Cuadrados Flexibles

  • Luis Fernando melo V.

    ()

  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

En este documento se presenta evidencia de cambios estructurales, a finales de la década de los noventa, en las relaciones económicas planteadas en los modelos uniecuacionales de inflación en Colombia. Hecho que afecta la inferencia y los pronósticos obtenidos a través de uso de técnicas clásicas de estimación. La metodología de estimación de mínimos cuadrados flexibles (Kalaba y Tesfatsion 1989, 1990), propuesta en esta investigación, permite incorporar tales cambios superando los problemas asociados a las metodologías tradicionales. Los pronósticos obtenidos a partir esta metodología son superiores, en sentido de menor error mínimo cuadrático, a aquellos obtenidos a través de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 282.

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