Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.32468/be.705
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Luis Fernando Melo & Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya, 2012. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case," Borradores de Economia 9511, Banco de la Republica.
References listed on IDEAS
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2003.
"Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging,"
Staff Reports
163, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
- Mario Nigrinis Ospina, 2004. "Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002.
"La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales,"
Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
- Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
- Martha Misas & Enrique López & Pablo Querubín, 2002. "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 3029, Banco de la Republica.
- Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Héctor M. Núñez Amortegui, 2004.
"Combinación de pronósticos de la inflación en presencia de cambios estructurales,"
Borradores de Economia
2153, Banco de la Republica.
- Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, 2004. "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Pauly, Peter, 1990.
"The use of prior information in forecast combination,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 503-508, December.
- Francis X. Diebold & Peter Pauly, 1987. "The use of prior information in forecast combination," Special Studies Papers 218, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
- Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik, 1989.
"Forecasting international growth rates using Bayesian shrinkage and other procedures,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 183-202, January.
- Zellner, A. & Hong, C., 1988. "Forecasting International Growth Rates Using Bayesian Shrinkage And Other Procedures," Papers m8802, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- Munir A. Jalil B. & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2000. "Una Relación No Lineal Entre Inflación Y Medios De Pago," Borradores de Economia 3725, Banco de la Republica.
- Wright, Jonathan H., 2008.
"Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Munir A. Jalil & Luis Fernando Melo, 2000. "Una Relación no Líneal entre Inflación y los Medios de Pago," Borradores de Economia 145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Miguel I. Gómez & Eliana R. González & Luis F. Melo, 2012. "Forecasting Food Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 153-173.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Elkin Castaño Vélez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2000. "Metodos de combinacion de pronosticos: una aplicacion a la inflacion," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 52, pages 113-165, Enero Jun.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Melo, Luis F. & Loaiza, Rubén A. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2016.
"Bayesian combination for inflation forecasts: The effects of a prior based on central banks’ estimates,"
Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 387-397.
- Luis F. Melo Velandia & Rubén A. Loaiza Maya & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2014. "Bayesian Combination for Inflation Forecasts: The Effects of a Prior Based on Central Banks’ Estimates," Borradores de Economia 853, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Loaiza, Rubén & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2019. "Bayesian Combination for Inflation Forecasts: The Effects of a Prior Based on Central Banks’ Estimates," Working papers 8, Red Investigadores de Economía.
- Luis F. Melo Velandia & Rubén A. Loaiza Maya & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2014. "Bayesian Combination for Inflation Forecasts: The Effects of a Prior Based on Central Banks’ Estimates," Borradores de Economia 12323, Banco de la Republica.
- Jing Zeng, 2015. "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Héctor Mauricio Nunez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
- Simionescu, Mihaela, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasts Combination To Improve The Romanian Inflation Predictions Based On Econometric Models," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 5(2), pages 131-140.
- Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
- Andrés M. Alonso & Guadalupe Bastos & Carolina García-Martos, 2016. "Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, July.
- Jing Zeng, 2016. "Combining country-specific forecasts when forecasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 415-444, May.
- Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2017.
"A Machine Learning Approach to the Forecast Combination Puzzle,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
halshs-01317974, HAL.
- Antoine Mandel & Amir Sani, 2017. "A Machine Learning Approach to the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Papers halshs-01317974, HAL.
- Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2010.
"To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 534-570.
- Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2006. "To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?," Working Papers 200806, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
- Samuels, Jon D. & Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2017. "Model Confidence Sets and forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 48-60.
- Yoonseok Lee & Donggyu Sul, 2023.
"Depth-weighted Forecast Combination: Application to COVID-19 Cases,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 235-260,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Yoonseok Lee & Donggyu Sul, 2021. "Depth-Weighted Forecast Combination: Application to COVID-19 Cases," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 238, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul, 2019.
"Machine learning for regularized survey forecast combination: Partially-egalitarian LASSO and its derivatives,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1679-1691.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2018. "Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 24967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2018. "Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-014, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 17 Aug 2018.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014.
"Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
- Huyn Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2011. "Forecasting Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Reduction Methods: New Empirical Evidence," Departmental Working Papers 201119, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2006.
"Forecast Combinations,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196,
Elsevier.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers 2010-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Aiolfi Marco & Capistrán Carlos & Timmermann Allan, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers 2010-04, Banco de México.
- Eliana González, 2010.
"Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia,"
Borradores de Economia
7013, Banco de la Republica.
- Eliana González, 2010. "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7014, Banco de la Republica.
- Eliana González, 2010. "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7015, Banco de la Republica.
- Eliana González, 2010. "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 604, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015.
"Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
- Bec, F. & Mogliani, M., 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?," Working papers 436, Banque de France.
- Frédérique Bec & Matteo Mogliani, 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions : Information or Forecast Combinations ?," Working Papers 2013-21, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Chen Yu-Chin & Rogoff Kenneth, 2012.
"Are The Commodity Currencies An Exception To The Rule?,"
Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-28.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Are the Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?," Working Papers UWEC-2006-28, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
- Katja Drechsel & Laurent Maurin, 2011.
"Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 336-354, April.
- Maurin, Laurent & Drechsel, Katja, 2008. "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series 925, European Central Bank.
- Joshua Gallin & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Improving the CPI’s Age-Bias Adjustment: Leverage, Disaggregation and Model Averaging," Working Papers 411, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
More about this item
Keywords
Forecast combination; Shrinkage; Expert forecasts; Rolling window estimation; Inflation forecasts.;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2012-05-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-05-22 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-22 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.