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Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana

  • Eliana González Molano


  • Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia


  • Anderson Grajales Olarte


En países como Colombia en donde se sigue una estrategia de inflación objetivo es fundamentalpara el Banco Central contar con buenos modelos para pronosticar la inflación. En estedocumento se comparan los pronósticos de inflación obtenidos a partir de un modelo de Curvade Phillips usando dos metodologías diferentes: pronósticos directos y pronósticos iterativos(tradicionales) para una muestra trimestral entre 1988 y 2007. Los pronósticos directos estánbasados en estimaciones OLS, mientras que los iterativos lo están en estimaciones tanto porOLS como por mínimos cuadrados flexibles. Los resultados encontrados muestran que alutilizar el mismo método de estimación, OLS, el error de pronóstico de la metodología directaes menor que el de la iterativa en el mediano plazo. Sin embargo, los pronósticos iterativosgenerados con la metodología de mínimos cuadrados flexibles superan a los directos - OLS.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 004246.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004246
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