IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La Demanda de Especies Monetarias en Colombia: Estructura y Pronóstico

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos A. Arango A.
  • Martha Misas A.
  • Juan Nicolás Hernández

Abstract

Las tesorerías de los Bancos Centrales enfrentan el problema de pronosticar las necesidades de especies monetarias requeridas por los agentes económicos para finalizar sus transacciones. Dichos pronósticos son utilizados para hacer sus planes a mediano plazo (2 a 3 años en el caso colombiano) de producción, e inventarios de materia prima y unidades terminadas por denominación. El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar distintas técnicas de pronóstico que sean lo suficientemente flexibles como para incorporar las innovaciones recientes en los determinantes de la demanda y la estructura denominacional de las especies monetarias, y reconocer las posibles no-linealidades en la relación de aquellos con el uso del efectivo. La estrategia seguida se basa en la utilización de redes neuronales artificiales (ANN) y mínimos cuadrados flexibles (FLS), dos técnicas econométricas bastante robustas frente a cambios estructurales y que permiten incorporar elementos no-lineales en la modelación del efectivo.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A. Arango A. & Martha Misas A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández, 2004. "La Demanda de Especies Monetarias en Colombia: Estructura y Pronóstico," Borradores de Economia 309, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:309
    DOI: 10.32468/be.309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.309
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.309?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    2. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
    3. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    6. Jerry Mushin, 1998. "Modeling the currency issue," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 252-258, September.
    7. Martha A. Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Carlos A. Arango A. & uan Nicolás Hernández A., 2004. "No-linealidades en la demanda de efectivo en Colombia: las redes neuronales como herramienta de pronóstico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 22(45), pages 10-57, June.
    8. Franses, Philip Hans & Kippers, Jeanine, 2007. "An empirical analysis of euro cash payments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1985-1997, November.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge E. Galán & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
    2. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    3. Yan Sun & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-216, July-Dece.
    4. Odean B. White, 2008. "Determinants of Commercial Banks’ Cost of Financial Intermediation in Jamaica: a Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 129-159, July-Dece.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003246, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004247, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2004:i:45:p:10-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Martha A. Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Carlos A. Arango A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández A., 2004. "No-linealidades en la demanda de efectivo en Colombia: las redes neuronales como herramienta de pronóstico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 10-57, June.
    5. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha Alicia Misas Arango, 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003244, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
    7. Melo, Luis F. & Loaiza, Rubén A. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2016. "Bayesian combination for inflation forecasts: The effects of a prior based on central banks’ estimates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 387-397.
    8. Héctor Mauricio Nunez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    9. José Mauricio Salazar Sáenz, 2009. "Evaluación de pronóstico de una red neuronal sobre el PIB en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 575, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    12. Taufiq Choudhry & Mohammad Hasan, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya, Mexico and Philippines," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 167-181, April.
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    14. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    15. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    16. Boyer, M. Martin & van Norden, Simon, 2006. "Exchange rates and order flow in the long run," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 235-243, December.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 2003. "A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 875-880.
    18. Par Osterholm, 2004. "Size properties of cointegration tests in misspecified systems," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(15), pages 919-924.
    19. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    20. Mazza, Paolo & Petitjean, Mikael, 2015. "How integrated is the European carbon derivatives market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 18-30.
    21. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.