No-Linealidades En La Demanada De Efectivo En Colombia: Las Redes Neuronales Como Herramienta De Pronostico
Forecasting the demand for cash in Colombia has become a true challenge in the recent past. The last decade witnessed strong changes in the variables that determine the demand for money: Inflation and, hence, interest rates, fall substantially, technological progress was strong in the Colombian Payment System and distorting Tobin-like taxes to financial transactions were imposed. These changes are of special relevance when the demand for money is a non-linear function of its determinants. In this paper we exploit the flexibility of artificial neural networks (ANN) to explore the existence of nonlinearity in the demand for cash. The results show that the ANN models outperform those of linear nature in terms of forecast errors. Furthermore, significant evidence is found of non-linearity in the dynamics of the demand for cash.
Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): 45 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002.
"La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
003029, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, Junio-Dic.
- Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín, 2002. "La Inflación En Colombia: Una Aproximación Desde Las Redes Neuronales," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
- Martha Misas & Enrique López & Pablo Querubín, "undated". "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001.
"Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-161, January.
- Joon Y. Park & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1190, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 1999. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Working Paper Series no6, Institute of Economic Research, Seoul National University.
- Charles Goodhart, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," FMG Special Papers sp125, Financial Markets Group.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, December.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, December.
- Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001.
"Nonlinear error correction models,"
Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC
2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
- Mira, Santiago & Escribano, Álvaro, 1997. "Nonlinear error correction models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6206, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- Mervyn A. King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Friedman, Benjamin M, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 321-338, November.
- Nikola Gradojevic & Jing Yang, 2000. "The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables," Staff Working Papers 00-23, Bank of Canada.
- William A. Barnett & Douglas Fisher & Apostolos Serletis, 2006.
"Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Money And The Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-43
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Mark Gertler, 1988.
"Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
- Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-588, August.
- Mark L. Gertler, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Breitung, Jörg, 1998.
"Rank tests for nonlinear cointegration,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,65, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- repec:esx:essedp:536 is not listed on IDEAS
- Luis E. Arango & Andrés González, 2000. "A Nonlinear Specification of Demand for Cash in Colombia," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 207-226, July-Dece.
- Rech, Gianluigi, 2002. "Forecasting with artificial neural network models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 491, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-275, July.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Buiter, Willem H & Armstrong, Clive A, 1978. "A Didactic Note on the Transactions Demand for Money and Behavior towards Risk: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 529-538, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000107:003277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Espe)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.