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La Demanda De Especies Monetarias En Colombia: Estructura Y Pronóstico

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Abstract

Las tesorerías de los Bancos Centrales enfrentan el problema de pronosticar las necesidades de especies monetarias requeridas por los agentes económicos para finalizar sus transacciones. Dichos pronósticos son utilizados para hacer sus planes a mediano plazo (2 a 3 años en el caso colombiano) de producción, e inventarios de materia prima y unidades terminadas por denominación. El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar distintas técnicas de pronóstico que sean lo suficientemente flexibles como para incorporar las innovaciones recientes en los determinantes de la demanda y la estructura denominacional de las especies monetarias, y reconocer las posibles no-linealidades en la relación de aquellos con el uso del efectivo. La estrategia seguida se basa en la utilización de redes neuronales artificiales (ANN) y mínimos cuadrados flexibles (FLS), dos técnicas econométricas bastante robustas frente a cambios estructurales y que permiten incorporar elementos no-lineales en la modelación del efectivo.

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  • Carlos A. Arango A., 2004. "La Demanda De Especies Monetarias En Colombia: Estructura Y Pronóstico," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002964, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    5. Martha A. Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Carlos A. Arango A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández A., 2004. "No-linealidades en la demanda de efectivo en Colombia: las redes neuronales como herramienta de pronóstico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 10-57, June.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    4. Yan Sun & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-216, July-Dece.

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