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La Demanda De Especies Monetarias En Colombia: Estructura Y Pron�Stico

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Abstract

Las tesorer�as de los Bancos Centrales enfrentan el problema de pronosticar las necesidades de especies monetarias requeridas por los agentes econ�micos para finalizar sus transacciones. Dichos pron�sticos son utilizados para hacer sus planes a mediano plazo (2 a 3 a�os en el caso colombiano) de producci�n, e inventarios de materia prima y unidades terminadas por denominaci�n. El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar distintas t�cnicas de pron�stico que sean lo suficientemente flexibles como para incorporar las innovaciones recientes en los determinantes de la demanda y la estructura denominacional de las especies monetarias, y reconocer las posibles no-linealidades en la relaci�n de aquellos con el uso del efectivo. La estrategia seguida se basa en la utilizaci�n de redes neuronales artificiales (ANN) y m�nimos cuadrados flexibles (FLS), dos t�cnicas econom�tricas bastante robustas frente a cambios estructurales y que permiten incorporar elementos no-lineales en la modelaci�n del efectivo.

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  • Carlos A. Arango A., 2004. "La Demanda De Especies Monetarias En Colombia: Estructura Y Pron�Stico," Borradores de Economia 2964, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002964
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge E. Galán and & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
    2. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    3. Yan Sun & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-216, July-Dece.
    4. Odean B. White, 2008. "Determinants of Commercial Banks’ Cost of Financial Intermediation in Jamaica: a Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 129-159, July-Dece.

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