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La Demanda de Efectivo en Colombia: Una Caja Nagra a la Luz de las Redes Neuronales

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Listed:
  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

  • Enrique López E.

    ()

  • Carlos A. Arango A.

    ()

  • Juan Nicolás Hernández A.

    ()

Abstract

En el caso colombiano la tarea de pronosticar el futuro comportamiento del efectivo se ha convertido en un verdadero reto ya que durante la última década la economía ha sufrido importantes trasformaciones que han traído consigo una mayor volatilidad en las variables que lo determinan. En particular, recientemente se ha dado una fuerte reducción en la rentabilidad de activos alternativos al efectivo debido a la reducción en la tasa de inflación y a la introducción del impuesto a las transacciones financieras. Al mismo tiempo, los ciclos de la actividad económica parecen ser más pronunciados. Estos cambios cobran especial relevancia en la medida en que la demanda de dinero esté asociada en forma no lineal con sus determinantes. En este trabajo se explora esta posible relación no lineal y se explota la flexibilidad de las redes neuronales artificiales -ANN- para modelarla. Las ganancias en los errores de pronóstico y la significancia estadística de las pruebas de no linealidad frente a modelos de naturaleza lineal auguran un futuro promisorio a estas técnicas que permiten predecir mejor el futuro en un entorno cambiante.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Carlos A. Arango A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández A., 2003. "La Demanda de Efectivo en Colombia: Una Caja Nagra a la Luz de las Redes Neuronales," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002963, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002963
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    Cited by:

    1. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos Para La Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 365, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, 2006. "¿No importa la cantidad de dinero?: "Inflation Targeting" y la teoría cuantitativa," Borradores de Economia 403, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Reveiz, Alejandro & Carlos, Leon, 2010. "Operational Risk Management Using a Fuzzy Logic Inference System," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, pages 141-153.
    4. Juan Nicolás Hernández A, 2006. "Revisión de los determinantes macroeconómicos del consumo total de los hogares para el caso colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 24(52), pages 80-109, December.
    5. Munir A. Jalil B. & Martha Misas A., 2007. "Evaluación de pronósticos del tipo de cambio utilizando redes neuronales y funciones de pérdida asimétricas," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, pages 219-241.
    6. Hernández Monsalve, Mauricio A. & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 2006. "La demanda por dinero en Colombia: un poco más de evidencia en el período reciente," PERFIL DE COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, July.
    7. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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