What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007–2009 global financial crisis?
We investigate the synchronization and nonlinear adjustment dynamics of short-term interest rates for France, the UK and the US using the bi-directional feedback measures proposed by Geweke (1982) and appropriate smooth transition error-correction models (STECM). We find evidence to support the increasing synchronization of these rates over the period 2005–2009 as well as of their lead–lag causal interactions. Moreover, short-term interest rates converge towards a common long-run equilibrium in a nonlinear manner and their time dynamics exhibit regime-switching behavior. As far as the underlying types of monetary policies conducted by the world’s leading central banks are concerned, our empirical evidence thus reveals strong interdependence, but only some degree of synchronization.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Georges Prat & Fredj Jawadi, 2007.
"Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries,"
- Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2009. "Nonlinear Stock Price Adjustment in the G7 Countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-21, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Dixit, A., 1988.
"Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty,"
91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- George A. Kahn & Scott Benolkin, 2007. "The role of money in monetary policy: why do the Fed and ECB see it so differently?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-36.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005.
"What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06.
- Ben Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, . "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Howitt, Peter, 2012. "What have central bankers learned from modern macroeconomic theory?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 11-22.
- Al Awad, Mouawiya & Goodwin, Barry K., 1998. "Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 881-907, December.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000.
"Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Balke-Fomby threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00010, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001.
"Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783.
- Stefano Eusepi, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and the Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 373-397, 03.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2007.
"Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 667-688, 03.
- Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2005. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Macroeconomics 0502001, EconWPA, revised 01 Feb 2005.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521779654 is not listed on IDEAS
- Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Rotondi, Zeno, 2011. "Financial stability, interest-rate smoothing and equilibrium determinacy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, January.
- Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian & Li, Qi, 2007. "Interest rate linkages in the Eurocurrency market: Contemporaneous and out-of-sample Granger causality tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 86-103, February.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521770415 is not listed on IDEAS
- Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
- Douglas, Christopher C. & Kolar, Marek, 2009. "Capturing the time dynamics of central bank intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 950-968, December.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Uctum, Merih, 1999.
"European integration and asymmetry in the EMS,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 769-798, October.
- Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:175-187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.