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Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?

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  • Fredj Jawadi

Abstract

This article develops a method of nonlinear modelling for the dividends of the Group of seven (G7) indexes using threshold techniques: Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models (STAR). First, smoothness and nonlinearity are justified by the presence of heterogeneous expectations and companies of different sizes. Then, we show that this methodology is adapted to reproduce persistence in the dividend adjustment dynamics. Finally, we highlight the superiority of STAR models compared to the linear process in modelling dividends and reducing measurement error while forecasting future dividends. STAR forecasting supplanted those of linear model in the short and medium terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:19:y:2009:i:16:p:1329-1343
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100802481812
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    Cited by:

    1. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2012. "Arbitrage costs and nonlinear adjustment in the G7 stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(12), pages 1561-1582, April.
    2. João M. Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2019. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the Euro Area, the US and the UK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 139-176, June.
    3. Fredj Jawadi & Mohamed Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "Global financial crisis, liquidity pressure in stock markets and efficiency of central bank interventions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 669-680.
    4. Rocha Armada, Manuel J. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Consumption growth, preference for smoothing, changes in expectations and risk premium," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 80-97.
    5. Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Predicting risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 204-218.
    6. Li-Hung Wu, 2013. "Rational Bubbles Exist in the G-7 Stock Markets? Threshold Cointegration Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 32-43, December.

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