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Rational Bubbles Exist in the G-7 Stock Markets? Threshold Cointegration Approach

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  • Li-Hung Wu

    (College of Business Feng Chia University and Department of Accounting and Information Technology Ling Tung University, Taichung, Taiwan)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether rational bubbles exist in the G-7 stock markets during the period from January 1980 to July 2008 using the threshold cointegration approach with asymmetric adjustments advanced by Enders and Siklos (2001). The results of threshold cointegration technique reveal that rational bubbles are nonexistent in both Canadian and Japanese stock markets during the period from January 1980 to July 2008. Further, the positive deviations from values are eliminated quicker than negative deviations and the price (not the dividend) is responsible for most of the adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Li-Hung Wu, 2013. "Rational Bubbles Exist in the G-7 Stock Markets? Threshold Cointegration Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 32-43, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:4:p:32-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
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    6. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    7. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-754, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Potrykus, Marcin, 2023. "Investing in wine, precious metals and G-7 stock markets – A co-occurrence analysis for price bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rational bubbles; Threshold Cointegration Test; asymmetric adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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