IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jespps/v43y2016i4p646-660.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for bubbles in the BRICS stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao Chang
  • Luis Gil-Alana
  • Goodness C. Aye
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Omid Ranjbar

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there exist multiple bubbles in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) stock markets. Design/methodology/approach - In this study, the authors apply the generalized sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, a new recursive test proposed by Phillipset al.(2015) and use monthly data on stock price-dividend ratio. Findings - The empirical results indicate that there exist multiple bubbles in the stock markets of the BRICS. Further, the dates of the bubbles also correspond to specific events in the stock markets of these economies. This finding has important economic and policy implications. Originality/value - The authors declare that this paper is original and has not been published by another journal previously.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao Chang & Luis Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in the BRICS stock markets," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 646-660, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:43:y:2016:i:4:p:646-660
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-07-2014-0128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2014-0128/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-07-2014-0128/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JES-07-2014-0128?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    3. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, May.
    4. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 33-55, March.
    5. Bradley Jones, 2014. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework," IMF Working Papers 2014/208, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1997. "Uncovering Nonlinear Structure in Real-Time Stock-Market Indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    9. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo, 2012. "Asset prices and monetary policy in Kenya," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 451-468, December.
    10. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & José Simão Filho, 2007. "Economic transparency and effectiveness of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 497-514, November.
    11. Bohl, Martin T. & Henke, Harald, 2003. "Trading volume and stock market volatility: The Polish case," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 513-525.
    12. J. Cunado & L. A. Gil-Alana & F. Perez de Gracia, 2007. "Testing for stock market bubbles using nonlinear models and fractional integration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1313-1321.
    13. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    14. Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Waters, George A., 2010. "Equity price bubbles in the Middle Eastern and North African Financial markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 39-48, March.
    15. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    16. Albert Jaeger & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 45-66, November.
    17. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-754, September.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Andrew Vivian & Mark Wohar, 2010. "UK stock price effects of permanent and transitory shocks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 641-656.
    20. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo, 2012. "Asset prices and monetary policy in Kenya," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 451-468, August.
    21. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Crossman, 2014. "Episodes of exuberance in housing markets," Working Papers 64908732, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    22. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    23. Tsangyao Chang & Chi-Chen Chiu & Chien-Chung Nieh, 2007. "Rational bubbles in the US stock market? Further evidence from a nonparametric cointegration test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 517-521.
    24. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "South Africa: Macroeconomic challenges after a decade of success1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 639-677, October.
    25. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
    26. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    27. Kasman, Adnan & Kasman, Saadet & Torun, Erdost, 2009. "Dual long memory property in returns and volatility: Evidence from the CEE countries' stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 122-139, June.
    28. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    29. Caspi, Itamar, 2013. "Rtadf: Testing for Bubbles with EViews," MPRA Paper 58791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2014.
    30. Earl A. Thompson & Charles R. Hickson, 2006. "Predicting bubbles," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(3/4), pages 217-246.
    31. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
    32. Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2010. "ADL tests for threshold cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 241-254, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.
    2. Fatima, Hira & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Exuberance Behavior in Agricultural Commodities of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 95304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    4. Waleed Khalid & Kashif Ur Rehman & Muhammad Kashif, 2019. "The Impact of Merger and Acquisition Firms on Stock Market Bubble," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 335-342, March.
    5. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Identification of multiple stock bubbles in an emerging market: application of GSADF approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 301-326, August.
    6. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Bashir, Uzma & Ullah, Irfan, 2021. "Testing for explosivity in US-Pak Exchange Rate via Sequential ADF Procedures," MPRA Paper 109607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Joshua Nielsen, 2023. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Bubbles in an Emerging Country: The Case of India," Working Papers 202305, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Wei, Yigang & Li, Yan & Wang, Zhicheng, 2022. "Multiple price bubbles in global major emission trading schemes: Evidence from European Union, New Zealand, South Korea and China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Wang, Shaoping & Yu, Lu & Zhao, Qing, 2021. "Do factor models explain stock returns when prices behave explosively? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Mei-Chih Wang & Tsangyao Chang & Jennifer Min, 2022. "Revisit stock price bubbles in the COVID-19 period: Further evidence from Taiwan’s and Mainland China’s tourism industries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 951-960, June.
    11. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Hammad Hassan Mirza & Farooq Anwar, 2020. "Do stock price bubbles correlate between China and Pakistan? An inquiry of pre‐ and post‐Chinese investment in Pakistani capital market under China‐Pakistan Economic Corridor regime," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 323-335, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Hammad Hassan Mirza & Farooq Anwar, 2020. "Do stock price bubbles correlate between China and Pakistan? An inquiry of pre‐ and post‐Chinese investment in Pakistani capital market under China‐Pakistan Economic Corridor regime," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 323-335, July.
    3. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Identification of multiple stock bubbles in an emerging market: application of GSADF approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 301-326, August.
    4. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2008. "Rational Bubbles in the Korea Stock Market? Further Evidence based on Nonlinear and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(34), pages 1-12.
    5. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2022. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nico Frederick Katzke, 2015. "Identifying Periods of US Housing Market Explosivity," Working Papers 15-03, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    7. Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-33.
    9. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Bashir, Uzma & Ullah, Irfan, 2021. "Testing for explosivity in US-Pak Exchange Rate via Sequential ADF Procedures," MPRA Paper 109607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Omid Ranjbar, 2015. "Characterising the South African Business Cycle: Is GDP Difference-Stationary or Trend-Stationary in a Markov-Switching Setup?," Working Papers 201529, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Ye, Yonggang & Chang, Tsangyao & Hung, Ken & Lu, Yang-Cheng, 2011. "Revisiting rational bubbles in the G-7 stock markets using the Fourier unit root test and the nonparametric rank test for cointegration," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 346-357.
    12. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2018. "Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 418-429.
    13. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    14. Leone, Vitor & de Medeiros, Otavio Ribeiro, 2015. "Signalling the Dotcom bubble: A multiple changes in persistence approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 77-86.
    15. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    16. Chen, Mei-Ping & Lin, Yu-Hui & Tseng, Chun-Yao & Chen, Wen-Yi, 2015. "Bubbles in health care: Evidence from the U.S., U.K., and German stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-205.
    17. Gutierrez, Luciano, 2011. "Bootstrapping asset price bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2488-2493.
    18. Caramugan, Karlo Martin & Bayacag, Purisima, 2016. "Price Bubble in Selected ASEAN Agricultural Exports: An Application of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller," MPRA Paper 74807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    20. Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Does Bitcoin bubble burst?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 91-105, January.
    21. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BRICS stock markets; GSADF test; Multiple bubbles; C12; C15; G12; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:43:y:2016:i:4:p:646-660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.