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Rtadf: Testing for Bubbles with EViews

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  • Caspi, Itamar

Abstract

This paper presents Rtadf (Right Tail Augmented Dickey-Fuller), an EViews Add-in that facilitates the performance of time series based tests that help detect and date-stamp asset price bubbles. Detection strategy is based on a right-tail variation of the standard Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test where the alternative hypothesis is of a mildly explosive process. The add-in implements four types of tests: Standard ADF, Rolling window ADF, supremum ADF (SADF) (Phillips, Wu, and Yu 2011) and generalized SADF (GSADF) (Phillips, Shi, and Yu 2013). Rejection of the null in each of these tests may serve as empirical evidence for an asset price bubble, and in the case of the SADF and GSADF tests, enables us, as a second step, to date-stamp its occurrence. The add-in calculates the relevant test statistics for each of the above four tests and simulates the corresponding exact finite sample critical values via Monte Carlo methods

Suggested Citation

  • Caspi, Itamar, 2013. "Rtadf: Testing for Bubbles with EViews," MPRA Paper 58791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:58791
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59045/3/MPRA_paper_59045.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    3. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    5. Bettendorf, Timo & Chen, Wenjuan, 2013. "Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar exchange rate? New evidence from sequential ADF tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 350-353.
    6. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    7. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2007. "Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 115-130, January.
    8. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nico Frederick Katzke, 2015. "Identifying Periods of US Housing Market Explosivity," Working Papers 15-03, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:eee:finlet:v:26:y:2018:i:c:p:89-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2018. "Real Time Monitoring of Asset Markets: Bubbles and Crises," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2152, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Omid Ranjbar, 2015. "Characterising the South African Business Cycle: Is GDP Difference-Stationary or Trend-Stationary in a Markov-Switching Setup?," Working Papers 15-04, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:eee:jhouse:v:43:y:2019:i:c:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paesani, Paolo, 2018. "Navigating the oil bubble: A non-linear heterogeneous-agent dynamic model of futures oil pricing," MPRA Paper 90470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 12, pages 1-33.
    8. Itamar Caspi & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Date Stamping Historical Oil Price Bubbles: 1876-2014," Working Papers 201445, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Chen, Zhenxi & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Dynamics of the European sovereign bonds and the identification of crisis periods," FinMaP-Working Papers 57, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    10. Laurie Binge & Willem H Boshoff, 2016. "Modelling South African Art Prices: An analysis of post-2000 price behaviour," Working Papers 18/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    11. Daan Steenkamp, 2017. "How bubbly is the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Steenkamp, Daan, 2018. "Explosiveness in G11 currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 388-408.
    13. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Property heterogeneity and convergence club formation among local house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    14. repec:eme:jespps:v:43:y:2016:i:4:p:646-660 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel," Globalization Institute Working Papers 246, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Aug 2015.
    16. Nicole Storp & Tobias Kordsmeyer, 2019. "Zeitreihenanalyse zu den Target-Forderungen der Deutschen Bundesbank und mögliche Zusammenhänge mit der expansiven Geldpolitik der EZB," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(06), pages 26-28, March.
    17. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.
    18. Jeanne Diesteldorf & Sarah Meyer & Jan Voelzke, 2016. "New evidence for explosive behavior of commodity prices," CQE Working Papers 5016, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    19. Caramugan, Karlo Martin & Bayacag, Purisima, 2016. "Price Bubble in Selected ASEAN Agricultural Exports: An Application of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller," MPRA Paper 74807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bago, Jean-Louis & Souratié, Wamadini M. & Ouédraogo, Moussa & Ouédraogo, Ernest & Dembélé, Alou, 2019. "Financial Bubbles : New Evidence from South Africa’s Stock Market," MPRA Paper 95685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a Housing Bubble at the National and Regional Level: The Case of Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2015.05, Bank of Israel.
    22. Itamar Caspi, 2016. "Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 483-516, September.
    23. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Do 18th century ‘bubbles’ survive the scrutiny of 21st century time series econometrics?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 131-134.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational bubble; ADF test; Sup ADF test; Generalized Sup ADF test; Mildly explosive process; EViews.;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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