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Testing for Bubbles in Stock Markets With Irregular Dividend Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Itamar Caspi

    (Bank of Israel)

  • Meital Graham

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

Recursive right-tailed unit root tests have recently become a popular tool to test the existence of stock price bubbles. These tests require continuous data on dividend distribution that is not always available, in particular when it comes to sectoral indexes or individual stocks. In this paper we show that it is possible to circumvent this problem by applying the test to an equity bubble using the book-to-market ratio. We illustrate our framework by testing for a bubble in the Israeli stock market, where data on continuous dividend distribution are uncommon.

Suggested Citation

  • Itamar Caspi & Meital Graham, 2016. "Testing for Bubbles in Stock Markets With Irregular Dividend Distribution," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.06, Bank of Israel.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2016.06
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Whitehouse, E.J. & Harvey, D.I. & Leybourne, S.J., 2025. "Real-time monitoring procedures for early detection of bubbles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1260-1277.
    3. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Emily J. Whitehouse & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2023. "Real‐Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 482-513, June.
    5. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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